Koki Ogawa

Offence, Japan

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
28
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
Japan
our board
#1032
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1703′
39 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
2.00
77th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Chances created for Japan, on the record.

goals
0
assists
1
caps
13
minutes
429′

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad: Japan · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1626 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1666 full roster Elo (+40 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Japan's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1608
age curve at 28 (offences' curve)the position's measured peak, no discount either way: +0
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +17
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1626
form: national-team results, 39 appearances1703 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +40
full roster Elo · with results: 1666

Rating trend

-327 over 40 updates

Seeded from his team’s rating, then moved by the matches he actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call.

Where the +17 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 2.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 77th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(77.4th) = 46 × 0.75 × 0.5 (position weight) = +17

Where the +40 was earned

The earned line, opened up by competition. World Cup finals count 1.5×, qualifiers and cups 1×, friendlies and club football half, so a tournament night moves him most.

World Cup finals3 apps · 41′: 0
internationals, qualifiers & cups8 apps · 319′: +5
international friendlies2 apps · 69′: +3
club football26 apps · 1274′: +32

His latest nights

2026-06-29World Cup finals · 2′ · team result only▼ −0
2026-06-25World Cup finals · 24′▼ −1
2026-06-14World Cup finals · 15′ · team result only▲ +1
2026-05-31international friendlies · 45′ · team result only▲ +1
2026-05-17club football · 19′ · team result only▲ +1

Each night’s move blends his team’s result with his own match stats, saves for keepers, tackles and duels for defenders, creation for midfielders, finishing up front. “Team result only” marks games where the feed carried no player stats.

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-29. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

At this World Cup

What the tournament has done to his rating since the first whistle on 11 Jun, and the matches behind it. Each night’s move blends his team’s result with his own performance, shrunk for sample size, so a strong game nudges the number rather than spiking it.

· 0

3 appearances · 41′ · 1 graded by his own stats

The matches behind it

06-29lost by 1 · 2′ · team result only· 0
06-25drew · 24′ · his stats graded▼ −1
06-14drew · 15′ · team result only▲ +1

The same movement shown beside his name on the board, opened up. “Team result only” marks nights the feed carried no player stats. A forward-only shadow signal; it never touches a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#1032 of 1424 rated players on our board.
best night
His best night in our ledger: +8 in one sitting, club football, 2025-11-23.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +40 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

We don’t price him yet. Our fee model leans on the level he plays at, and no trusted source has given us his club’s strength. We’d rather show nothing than a number we don’t trust.

The fee record · sourced

2024-06-17Yokohama FC → NEC Nijmegenundisclosed
2023-07-03Yokohama FC → NEC Nijmegenloan
2022-01-09Jubilo Iwata → Yokohama FCfree
2020-02-01Mito Hollyhock → Jubilo Iwataundisclosed

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Japan’s record

at Brazil2–1Called it
v Sweden1–1Missed it
at Tunisia0–4Called it
at Netherlands2–2Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Japan. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.