full time
France3–0Sweden
Called it. As forecast.
France to win
sealed Sun 28 Jun · 19:07 UTC · 21:07 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Sun, 28 Jun 2026 19:07:46 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2137+27 this year
2110 → 2137 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
3rddown 2 places on the latest list
3rd → 3rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1795-14 this year
1809 → 1795 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
38thheld on the latest list
43rd → 38th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: France by 342 points
Head to head
France have had the better of this fixture.
23 prior meetings · France 12, drawn 5, Sweden 6 · goals 34-23
- 2020France 4-2 Sweden· UEFA Nations League
- 2020Sweden 0-1 France· UEFA Nations League
- 2017Sweden 2-1 France· FIFA World Cup qualification
- 2016France 2-1 Sweden· FIFA World Cup qualification
- 2014France 1-0 Sweden· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make France the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +376 edge into 74% / 18% / 8% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
France
1.9
expected goals
Sweden
0.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 2–014 in 100
- 1–014 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–19 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: France 52 in 100, Sweden 14 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- France win at home.✓ right
- France win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- France keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
France4-2-3-1
- 16Mike MaignanG1956
- 5Jules KoundéD2171
- 4Dayot UpamecanoD2258
- 17William SalibaD2328
- 3Lucas DigneD2016
- 8Aurélien TchouaméniM2173
- 14Adrien RabiotM1940
- 7Ousmane DembéléM2308
- 11Michael OliseM2518
- 12Bradley BarcolaM2132
- 10Kylian MbappéF2320
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Robin RisserG~1915 provisional
- 1Brice SambaG~1886 provisional
- 2Malo GustoD1970
- 21Lucas HernándezD2064
- 26Maxence LacroixD2008
- 15Ibrahima KonatéD2149
- 19Theo HernándezD1744
- 6Manu KonéM1934
- 24Rayan CherkiM2224
- 25Maghnes AklioucheM1917
- 18Warren Zaïre-EmeryM2143
- 13N'Golo KantéM1800
- 22Jean-Philippe MatetaF2049
- 20Désiré DouéF2252
- 9Marcus ThuramF2038
Sweden3-4-2-1
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG~1597 provisional
- 2Gustaf LagerbielkeD1870
- 3Victor LindelöfD1880
- 5Gabriel GudmundssonD1856
- 8Daniel SvenssonM1850
- 18Yasin AyariM1941
- 7Lucas BergvallM1812
- 24Elliot StroudM~1595 provisional
- 11Anthony ElangaF1901
- 9Alexander IsakF2092
- 17Viktor GyökeresF2173
9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Kristoffer NordfeldtG~1524 provisional
- 12Viktor JohanssonG~1565 provisional
- 14Hjalmar EkdalD1659
- 20Eric SmithD~1540 provisional
- 15Carl StarfeltD1765
- 22Besfort ZeneliM~1804 provisional
- 6Herman JohanssonM~1603 provisional
- 13Ken SemaM~1600 provisional
- 26Taha Abdi AliM~1573 provisional
- 16Jesper KarlströmM~1688 provisional
- 19Mattias SvanbergM~1644 provisional
- 10Benjamin NygrenF~1587 provisional
- 25Gustaf NilssonF1784
- 21Alexander BernhardssonF~1597 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 30 Jun 2026 20:21:13 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 45'K. Mbappegoalassist O. Dembele
- 53'B. Barcolagoalassist M. Olise
- 66'T. Ali for E. Stroudsub
- 66'B. Zeneli for L. Bergvallsub
- 74'K. Mbappegoalassist M. Olise
- 75'M. Gusto for J. Koundesub
- 75'D. Doue for O. Dembelesub
- 78'T. Hernandez for L. Dignesub
- 82'M. Svanberg for D. Svenssonsub
- 82'B. Nygren for Y. Ayarisub
- 85'J. Mateta for K. Mbappesub
- 85'R. Cherki for M. Olisesub
- 89'G. Nilsson for A. Isaksub
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:02:45 GMT
Full time
Called it.
France 3-0 Sweden
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed France to win at 74%, about , before kickoff. Full time said France 3-0 Sweden: the France win, an outcome we had at 74 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved France +11 and Sweden -11.
On our player board, the squads moved France +134 (16 appearances) · Sweden -86 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +376 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 74/18/8 (home/draw/away).Favourite: France · 74%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked France v Sweden before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.