Alexander Isak

1973 full roster Elo (−3 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1979 ±45 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the offence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Sweden's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1890

age curve at 26 (offences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior

-6

attacking output in club football, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+92

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1976

form: national-team results, 28 appearances1767 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

-3

full roster Elo · with results

1973

Where the +92 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

0.47 npxG per 90

his rank

98th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

recent club seasons, every shot scored by our own xG model

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(97.7th) = 46 × 2.00 = +92

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-25. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1911the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×4.74

ageage 26, in the fee-peak window (24–27)

×1.00

attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×1.00

individual skillmeasured 98th percentile of peers

×1.77

our estimate

≈ €60m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.