full time
France3–1Senegal
MetLife Stadium, New York/New Jersey · 82,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
France to win
sealed Fri 12 Jun · 10:06 UTC · 12:06 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Fri, 12 Jun 2026 10:06:53 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2137+27 this year
2110 → 2137 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
3rddown 2 places on the latest list
3rd → 3rd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1880-17 this year
1897 → 1880 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
15thdown 1 place on the latest list
19th → 15th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: France by 257 points
Head to head
Senegal have had the better of this fixture.
2 prior meetings · France 0, drawn 0, Senegal 2 · goals 0-3
- 2002France 0-1 Senegal· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 1963Senegal 2-0 France· African Friendship Games
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make France the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +208 edge into 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
France
1.7
expected goals
Senegal
0.9
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–112 in 100
- 1–012 in 100
- 2–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: France 40 in 100, Senegal 19 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- France win at home.✓ right
- France win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
France4-2-3-1
- 16Mike MaignanG1956
- 5Jules KoundéD2171
- 17William SalibaD2328
- 4Dayot UpamecanoD2258
- 19Theo HernándezD1744
- 8Aurélien TchouaméniM2173
- 14Adrien RabiotM1940
- 11Michael OliseM2518
- 7Ousmane DembéléM2308
- 20Désiré DouéM2252
- 10Kylian MbappéF2320
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Brice SambaG~1886 provisional
- 23Robin RisserG~1915 provisional
- 26Maxence LacroixD2008
- 21Lucas HernándezD2064
- 3Lucas DigneD2016
- 15Ibrahima KonatéD2149
- 2Malo GustoD1970
- 6Manu KonéM1934
- 13N'Golo KantéM1800
- 24Rayan CherkiM2224
- 18Warren Zaïre-EmeryM2143
- 25Maghnes AklioucheM1917
- 9Marcus ThuramF2038
- 22Jean-Philippe MatetaF2049
- 12Bradley BarcolaF2132
Senegal4-3-3
- 16Edouard MendyG1647
- 15Krépin DiattaD1773
- 3Kalidou KoulibalyD1658
- 19Moussa NiakhatéD~1780 provisional
- 25El Hadji Malick DioufD1719
- 8Lamine CamaraM1862
- 5Idrissa Gana GueyeM1824
- 26Pape GueyeM1808
- 18Ismaïla SarrF1919
- 11Nicolas JacksonF2175
- 10Sadio ManéF1946
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Yehvann DioufG~1604 provisional
- 23Mory DiawG~1648 provisional
- 14Ismail JakobsD1757
- 24Antoine MendyD1633
- 2Mamadou SarrD~1788 provisional
- 4Abdoulaye SeckD1592
- 17Pape Matar SarrM1853
- 6Pathé Ismaël CissM~1760 provisional
- 13Iliman NdiayeF1804
- 21Habib DiarraM~1828 provisional
- 22Bara Sapoko NdiayeM~1937 provisional
- 12Cherif NdiayeF1593
- 7Assane DiaoF~1787 provisional
- 20Ibrahim MbayeF~1566 provisional
- 9Ahmadou Bamba DiengF~1636 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 18:00:09 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 66'K. Mbappegoalassist M. Olise
- 75'I. Mbaye for I. Sarrsub
- 76'H. Diarra for L. Camarasub
- 80'B. Barcola for O. Dembelesub
- 82'B. Barcolagoalassist A. Rabiot
- 83'I. Ndiaye for P. Gueyesub
- 83'B. Dieng for N. Jacksonsub
- 87'R. Cherki for D. Douesub
- 88'P. Ciss for I. Gueyesub
- 90+5'I. Mbayegoalassist I. Ndiaye
- 90+6'K. Mbappegoal
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 21:11:28 GMT
Full time
Called it.
France 3-1 Senegal
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed France to win at 59%, about , before kickoff. Full time said France 3-1 Senegal: the France win, an outcome we had at 59 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved France +21 and Senegal -21.
On our player board, the squads moved France +140 (13 appearances) · Senegal -107 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +208 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 59/23/18 (home/draw/away).Favourite: France · 59%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked France v Senegal before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.