full time
Portugal5–0Uzbekistan
NRG Stadium, Houston · 72,220 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Portugal to win
sealed Sun 21 Jun · 19:20 UTC · 21:20 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Sun, 21 Jun 2026 19:20:47 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2024-11 this year
2035 → 2024 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
5thheld on the latest list
6th → 5th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1838+19 this year
1819 → 1838 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
50thheld on the latest list
50th → 50th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Portugal by 186 points
How we got hereWe make Portugal the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +206 edge into 59% / 23% / 18% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Portugal
1.7
expected goals
Uzbekistan
0.9
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–112 in 100
- 1–012 in 100
- 2–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Portugal 40 in 100, Uzbekistan 19 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Portugal win at home.✓ right
- Portugal win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Portugal4-2-3-1
- 1Diogo CostaG1892
- 20João CanceloD2040
- 3Rúben DiasD2107
- 13Renato VeigaD1773
- 25Nuno MendesD2090
- 15João NevesM2038
- 23VitinhaM2002
- 18Pedro NetoM1920
- 8Bruno FernandesM2125
- 11João FélixM1938
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF1778
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12José SáG1711
- 22Rui SilvaG1917
- 2Nélson SemedoD1784
- 4Tomás AraújoD1885
- 5Diogo DalotD2016
- 14Gonçalo InácioD1948
- 6Matheus NunesM2061
- 24Samú CostaM1782
- 10Bernardo SilvaM2101
- 21Rúben NevesM1717
- 19Gonçalo GuedesF1834
- 16Francisco TrincãoF1917
- 9Gonçalo RamosF1999
- 17Rafael LeãoF1888
- 26Francisco ConceiçãoF1880
Uzbekistan3-4-2-1
- 12Abduvokhid NematovG1473
- 2Abdukodir KhusanovD1915
- 18Abdulla AbdullaevD~1553 provisional
- 5Rustam AshurmatovD1531
- 24Bekhruz KarimovM1500
- 9Odiljon KhamrobekovM1521
- 7Otabek ShukurovM1521
- 13Sherzod NasrullaevM1509
- 22Abbosbek FayzullaevF1582
- 19Azizjon GanievF1513
- 14Eldor ShomurodovF1596
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Botirali ErgashevG~1547 provisional
- 1Utkir YusupovG1528
- 25Avazbek UlmasaliyevD~1553 provisional
- 4Farrukh SayfievD~1531 provisional
- 3Khozhiakbar AlizhonovD1538
- 26Jakhongir UrozovD1514
- 15Umarbek EshmuradovD1543
- 6Akmal MozgovoyM1534
- 20Azizbek AmanovF1547
- 8Jamshid IskandarovM1531
- 17Dostonbek KhamdamovM1522
- 11Oston UrunovM1522
- 10Ruslanbek JiyanovMunrated
- 23Sherzod EsanovM1544
- 21Igor SergeevF1522
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 16:21:04 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 6'C. Ronaldogoalassist J. Cancelo
- 17'N. Mendesgoal
- 39'C. Ronaldogoalassist B. Fernandes
- 46'N. Semedo for J. Cancelosub
- 46'F. Conceicao for P. Netosub
- 46'K. Alizhonov for S. Nasrullaevsub
- 46'A. Mozgovoy for O. Khamrobekovsub
- 60'A. Nematovgoal (o.g.)
- 64'Trincao for Joao Felixsub
- 73'I. Sergeev for A. Fayzullaevsub
- 76'B. Silva for J. Nevessub
- 83'R. Leao for Vitinhasub
- 87'R. Leaogoal
- 90+2'R. Jiyanov for B. Karimovsub
- 90+2'S. Esanov for O. Shukurovsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:23:20 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Portugal to win at 59%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Portugal 5-0 Uzbekistan: the Portugal win, an outcome we had at 59 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Portugal +28 and Uzbekistan -28.
On our player board, the squads moved Portugal +49 (16 appearances) · Uzbekistan -125 (14 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +206 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 59/23/18 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Portugal · 59%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Portugal v Uzbekistan before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.