full time
Uruguay2–2Cape Verde Islands
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · 64,767 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Uruguay to win
sealed Fri 19 Jun · 19:30 UTC · 21:30 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Fri, 19 Jun 2026 19:30:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1974-25 this year
1999 → 1974 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
16thup 1 place on the latest list
16th → 16th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1685+71 this year
1614 → 1685 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
67thup 2 places on the latest list
67th → 67th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Uruguay by 289 points
How we got hereWe make Uruguay the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +273 edge into 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Uruguay
1.8
expected goals
Cape Verde Islands
0.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–013 in 100
- 2–012 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Uruguay 44 in 100, Cape Verde Islands 17 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Uruguay win at home.✗ wrong
- Uruguay win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Uruguay keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Uruguay4-2-3-1
- 23Fernando MusleraG1710
- 13Guillermo VarelaD1845
- 3Sebastián CáceresD1592
- 16Mathías OliveraD1886
- 25Juan SanabriaD1583
- 5Manuel UgarteM1933
- 6Rodrigo BentancurM1874
- 14Agustín CanobbioM1863
- 8Federico ValverdeM1998
- 20Maximiliano AraújoM1883
- 21Federico ViñasF1539
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Santiago MeleG1750
- 1Sergio RochetG1883
- 2José María GiménezD1876
- 17Matías ViñaD1843
- 24Santiago BuenoD1743
- 22Joaquín PiquerezD1915
- 7Nicolás de la CruzM1889
- 11Facundo PellistriM1687
- 18Brian RodríguezF1601
- 15Emiliano MartínezM1808
- 9Darwin NúñezF1706
- 26Rodrigo ZalazarM1812
- 19Rodrigo AguirreF1761
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
- 1VozinhaG1554
- 22Steven MoreiraD1534
- 4PicoD1542
- 3Diney BorgesD1553
- 13Sidny Lopes CabralD1792
- 6Kevin LeniniM1561
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM1521
- 20Ryan MendesM1480
- 10Jamiro MonteiroM1523
- 11Garry RodriguesM1490
- 9Gilson TavaresF1521
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Márcio RosaG~1508 provisional
- 23CJ Dos SantosG1504
- 2StopiraD1491
- 5Logan CostaD1728
- 24Wagner PinaD1576
- 25Kelvin PiresD~1521 provisional
- 8João PauloM1576
- 15Laros DuarteM1523
- 17Willy SemedoF1510
- 16Yannick SemedoM1500
- 26Hélio VarelaF1525
- 14Deroy DuarteM1524
- 7Jovane CabralF1475
- 21Nuno Da CostaF1502
- 19Dailon Rocha LivramentoF1459
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 21:21:18 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 21'K. Leninigoal
- 44'M. Araujogoal
- 45+6'A. Canobbiogoalassist M. Araujo
- 46'D. Duarte for T. Arcanjosub
- 58'N. Da Costa for Benchimolsub
- 58'H. Varela for G. Rodriguessub
- 61'H. Varelagoal
- 70'N. de la Cruz for M. Ugartesub
- 70'D. Nunez for F. Vinassub
- 71'L. Duarte for K. Leninisub
- 80'Y. Semedo for J. Monteirosub
- 81'B. Rodriguez for M. Araujosub
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 22 Jun 2026 00:21:13 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde Islands
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Uruguay to win at 65%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Uruguay 2-2 Cape Verde Islands: the draw, an outcome we had at 21 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Uruguay win at home.
- Uruguay win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Uruguay keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Uruguay -20 and Cape Verde Islands +20.
On our player board, the squads moved Uruguay -46 (14 appearances) · Cape Verde Islands +66 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +273 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 65/21/14 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Uruguay · 65%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Uruguay v Cape Verde Islands before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.