full time
Saudi Arabia1–1Uruguay
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · 64,767 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Uruguay to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1681-13 this year
1694 → 1681 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
61stheld on the latest list
60th → 61st · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1974-25 this year
1999 → 1974 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
16thup 1 place on the latest list
16th → 16th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Uruguay by 293 points
Head to head
Nothing between them down the years. Pick a side.
3 prior meetings · Saudi Arabia 1, drawn 1, Uruguay 1 · goals 4-4
- 2018Uruguay 1-0 Saudi Arabia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2014Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay· Friendly
- 2002Saudi Arabia 3-2 Uruguay· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Uruguay the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -283 edge into 13% / 21% / 66% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Saudi Arabia
0.8
expected goals
Uruguay
1.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–113 in 100
- 0–212 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Saudi Arabia 17 in 100, Uruguay 45 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Uruguay win on the road.✗ wrong
- Uruguay win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Uruguay keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Saudi Arabia4-4-2
- 21Mohammed Al-OwaisG1554
- 12Saud AbdulhamidD1597
- 5Hassan AltambaktiD1679
- 4Abdulelah Al-AmriD1588
- 24Moteb Al-HarbiD1622
- 26Mohammed Abu Al-ShamatM1632
- 23Mohamed KannoM1564
- 15Abdullah Al-KhaibariM1580
- 10Salem Al-DawsariM1588
- 7Musab Al JuwayrF1618
- 9Firas Al-BuraikanF1568
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Ahmed Al-KassarG1521
- 1Nawaf Al-AqidiG1544
- 3Ali LajamiD1568
- 25Jehad ThakriD~1545 provisional
- 14Hassan KadeshD1570
- 2Ali MajrashiD1637
- 13Nawaf BoushalD1635
- 6Nasser Al-DawsariM1623
- 16Ziyad AljohaniM1587
- 8Ayman YahyaM1554
- 18Ala'a Al-HejjiMunrated
- 11Saleh Al-ShehriF1538
- 17Khalid Al-GhannamF1549
- 19Abdullah Al-HamdanF1532
- 20Sultan MandashF1582
Uruguay4-4-2
- 23Fernando MusleraG1710
- 13Guillermo VarelaD1845
- 3Sebastián CáceresD1592
- 16Mathías OliveraD1886
- 17Matías ViñaD1843
- 8Federico ValverdeM1998
- 5Manuel UgarteM1933
- 6Rodrigo BentancurM1874
- 20Maximiliano AraújoM1883
- 21Federico ViñasF1539
- 9Darwin NúñezF1706
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Santiago MeleG1750
- 1Sergio RochetG1883
- 2José María GiménezD1876
- 25Juan SanabriaM1583
- 24Santiago BuenoD1743
- 22Joaquín PiquerezD1915
- 18Brian RodríguezF1601
- 11Facundo PellistriM1687
- 15Emiliano MartínezM1808
- 14Agustín CanobbioF1863
- 7Nicolás de la CruzM1889
- 26Rodrigo ZalazarM1812
- 19Rodrigo AguirreF1761
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 21:20:47 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 41'A. Al Amrigoal
- 46'J. Sanabria for M. Vinasub
- 46'A. Canobbio for D. Nunezsub
- 63'N. Al Dawsari for M. Al Juwayrsub
- 72'N. de la Cruz for M. Ugartesub
- 80'M. Araujogoal
- 81'B. Rodriguez for M. Araujosub
- 81'N. Boushal for M. Abu Al Shamatsub
- 90'R. Aguirre for F. Vinassub
- 90+3'A. Lajami for S. Abdulhamidsub
- 90+3'A. Al Hamdan for M. Al Harbisub
- 90+3'A. Hejji for F. Al Buraikansub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:20:56 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Uruguay to win at 66%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay: the draw, an outcome we had at 21 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Uruguay win on the road.
- Uruguay win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Uruguay keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Saudi Arabia +20 and Uruguay -20.
On our player board, the squads moved Saudi Arabia +23 (15 appearances) · Uruguay -27 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -283 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 13/21/66 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Uruguay · 66%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Saudi Arabia v Uruguay before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.