full time
Spain0–0Cape Verde Islands
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 71,000 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Spain to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2217+11 this year
2206 → 2217 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
2ndheld on the latest list
1st → 2nd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1685+71 this year
1614 → 1685 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
67thup 2 places on the latest list
67th → 67th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Spain by 532 points
How we got hereWe make Spain the stronger side, and seal the call at about 9 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +557 edge into 85% / 12% / 3% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Spain
2.2
expected goals
Cape Verde Islands
0.4
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 2–017 in 100
- 1–016 in 100
- 3–012 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Spain 64 in 100, Cape Verde Islands 12 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Spain win at home.✗ wrong
- Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Spain keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Spain4-3-3
- 23Unai SimónG1829
- 5Marcos LlorenteD1874
- 22Pau CubarsíD2035
- 14Aymeric LaporteD1843
- 24Marc CucurellaD1918
- 8Fabián RuizM2024
- 16RodriM2038
- 20PedriM2049
- 7Ferran TorresF2028
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF1869
- 9Pablo GaviF1641
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1David RayaG2139
- 13Joan GarcíaG2118
- 2Marc PubillD1904
- 4Eric GarcíaD2053
- 12Pedro PorroD1867
- 3Alejandro GrimaldoD1940
- 6Mikel MerinoM2113
- 15Alex BaenaM1870
- 18Martín ZubimendiM2147
- 10Dani OlmoM2017
- 17Nico WilliamsF1810
- 19Lamine YamalF2107
- 11Yéremy PinoM1852
- 25Victor MuñozF1769
- 26Borja IglesiasF1831
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
- 1VozinhaG1554
- 22Steven MoreiraD1534
- 4PicoD1542
- 3Diney BorgesD1553
- 13Sidny Lopes CabralD1792
- 6Kevin LeniniM1561
- 20Ryan MendesM1480
- 15Laros DuarteM1523
- 10Jamiro MonteiroM1523
- 7Jovane CabralM1475
- 19Dailon Rocha LivramentoF1459
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Márcio RosaG~1508 provisional
- 23CJ Dos SantosG1504
- 2StopiraD1491
- 5Logan CostaD1728
- 24Wagner PinaD1576
- 25Kelvin PiresD~1521 provisional
- 8João PauloM1576
- 11Garry RodriguesF1490
- 14Deroy DuarteM1524
- 16Yannick SemedoM1500
- 17Willy SemedoF1510
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM1521
- 26Hélio VarelaF1525
- 21Nuno Da CostaF1502
- 9Gilson TavaresF1521
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:03:17 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 61'W. Semedo for J. Cabralsub
- 61'N. Da Costa for D. Livramentosub
- 61'D. Duarte for L. Duartesub
- 71'M. Merino for F. Ruizsub
- 71'Lamine Yamal for Gavisub
- 76'Joao Paulo for S. Lopes Cabralsub
- 79'T. Arcanjo for J. Monteirosub
- 81'D. Olmo for F. Torressub
- 87'N. Williams for Rodrisub
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:58:59 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Spain to win at 85%, about 9 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands: the draw, an outcome we had at 12 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Spain win at home.
- Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Spain -28 and Cape Verde Islands +28.
On our player board, the squads moved Spain -53 (15 appearances) · Cape Verde Islands +103 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +557 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 85/12/3 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Spain · 85%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Spain v Cape Verde Islands before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.