full time
Japan1–1Sweden
AT&T Stadium, Dallas · 80,000 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Japan to win
sealed Tue 23 Jun · 19:53 UTC · 21:53 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:53:15 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1993+13 this year
1980 → 1993 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
18thheld on the latest list
18th → 18th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1772-10 this year
1782 → 1772 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
38thheld on the latest list
43rd → 38th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Japan by 221 points
Head to head
Sweden have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Japan 0, drawn 3, Sweden 1 · goals 4-5
- 2002Japan 1-1 Sweden· Friendly
- 1997Japan 0-1 Sweden· King's Cup· neutral
- 1996Japan 1-1 Sweden· Lunar New Year Cup· neutral
- 1995Sweden 2-2 Japan· Friendly· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Japan the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +222 edge into 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Japan
1.7
expected goals
Sweden
0.9
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–112 in 100
- 1–012 in 100
- 2–011 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Japan 41 in 100, Sweden 18 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Japan win at home.✗ wrong
- Japan win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Japan keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Japan3-4-3
- 1Z. SuzukiG1671
- 20A. SekoD1685
- 4K. ItakuraD1695
- 21H. ItoD2007
- 2Y. SugawaraD1668
- 15D. KamadaM1877
- 7A. TanakaM1900
- 13Keito NakamuraF1673
- 10R. DōanM1775
- 18A. UedaF1704
- 11D. MaedaF1636
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 3S. TaniguchiD1691
- 5Y. NagatomoD1570
- 14J. ItoF1683
- 22T. TomiyasuD1689
- 19Koki OgawaF1666
- 12K. OsakoG~1607 provisional
- 24K. SanoM1763
- 16T. WatanabeD1672
- 17Y. SuzukiM1742
- 23T. HayakawaG1607
- 25J. SuzukiD1674
- 9K. GotoF1685
- 26K. ShiogaiF1660
- 6S. MachinoFunrated
Sweden3-4-1-2
- 1J. Widell ZetterströmG1604
- 2G. LagerbielkeD1881
- 4I. HienD1790
- 3V. LindelöfD1895
- 21A. BernhardssonF1572
- 24E. StroudD1604
- 18Y. AyariM1912
- 5G. GudmundssonD1873
- 11A. ElangaF1880
- 17V. GyökeresF2078
- 9A. IsakF1973
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22B. ZeneliM1757
- 7L. BergvallM1824
- 8D. SvenssonD1834
- 6H. JohanssonD1619
- 26T. AliF1574
- 10B. NygrenF1613
- 12V. JohanssonG1564
- 14H. EkdalD1669
- 19M. SvanbergM1647
- 25G. NilssonF1786
- 20E. SmithD1538
- 15C. StarfeltD1791
- 13K. SemaM1573
- 16J. KarlströmM1718
- 23K. NordfeldtG1568
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 22:06:16 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 37'Lucas Bergvall for Isak Hiensub
- 39'Shogo Taniguchi for Ko Itakurasub
- 56'Daizen Maedagoalassist Ritsu Doan
- 62'Anthony Elangagoalassist Viktor Gyökeres
- 66'Koki Ogawa for Ayase Uedasub
- 67'Junya Ito for Ritsu Doansub
- 75'Daniel Svensson for Alexander Bernhardssonsub
- 75'Ken Sema for Elliot Stroudsub
- 75'Yuto Nagatomo for Keito Nakamurasub
- 75'Tsuyoshi Watanabe for Ayumu Sekosub
- 87'Carl Starfelt for Victor Lindelöfsub
- 88'Benjamin Nygren for Gabriel Gudmundssonsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 01:23:06 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Japan 1-1 Sweden
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Japan to win at 61%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Japan 1-1 Sweden: the draw, an outcome we had at 22 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Japan win at home.
- Japan win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Japan keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Japan -17 and Sweden +17.
On our player board, the squads moved Japan +13 (16 appearances) · Sweden +0 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +222 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 61/22/17 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Japan · 61%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Japan v Sweden before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.