full time
Colombia0–0Portugal
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · 64,767 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Colombia to win
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2085+58 this year
2027 → 2085 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2050-11 this year
2061 → 2050 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
5thheld on the latest list
6th → 5th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 35 points
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +50 edge into 42% / 26% / 32% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Colombia
1.4
expected goals
Portugal
1.2
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–010 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–18 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Colombia 30 in 100, Portugal 25 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Colombia win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Colombia4-3-3
- 12Camilo VargasG~1618 provisional
- 4Santiago AriasD~1632 provisional
- 23Davinson SánchezD1824
- 3Jhon LucumíD1796
- 22Deiver MachadoD~1649 provisional
- 14Gustavo PuertaM~1694 provisional
- 16Jefferson LermaM1784
- 11Jhon AriasM~1937 provisional
- 10James RodríguezF~1592 provisional
- 9Jhon CórdobaF~1605 provisional
- 7Luis DíazF2339
4 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 24Álvaro MonteroG~1609 provisional
- 17Johan MojicaD~1712 provisional
- 18Willer DittaD~1859 provisional
- 13Yerry MinaD1755
- 26Andrés GómezF~1747 provisional
- 2Daniel MuñozD2019
- 21Jaminton CampazM1773
- 8Jorge CarrascalM~1940 provisional
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1803
- 15Juan PortillaM~1865 provisional
- 5Kevin CastañoM~1848 provisional
- 6Richard RíosM1923
- 19Cucho HernándezF1918
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2124
Portugal4-2-3-1
- 1Diogo CostaG1937
- 20João CanceloD2087
- 3Rúben DiasD2101
- 13Renato VeigaD1792
- 25Nuno MendesD2065
- 21Rúben NevesM1855
- 23VitinhaM2150
- 18Pedro NetoM1961
- 8Bruno FernandesM2452
- 11João FélixM2090
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF1926
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12José SáG1684
- 22Rui SilvaG~1917 provisional
- 5Diogo DalotD1976
- 14Gonçalo InácioD1980
- 6Matheus NunesM2167
- 2Nélson SemedoD1759
- 4Tomás AraújoD1908
- 10Bernardo SilvaM2155
- 16Francisco TrincãoF1934
- 19Gonçalo GuedesF1782
- 15João NevesM2118
- 24Samú CostaM~1793 provisional
- 26Francisco ConceiçãoF1916
- 9Gonçalo RamosF~1964 provisional
- 17Rafael LeãoF1933
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 22:58:52 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'J. Neves for R. Nevessub
- 46'D. Dalot for J. Cancelosub
- 60'R. Rios for J. Lermasub
- 60'L. Suarez for J. Cordobasub
- 70'R. Leao for Joao Felixsub
- 70'Samu Costa for Vitinhasub
- 76'K. Castano for J. Ariassub
- 76'J. Quintero for J. Rodriguezsub
- 87'D. Munoz for S. Ariassub
- 90+3'M. Nunes for N. Mendessub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 01:31:29 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Colombia 0-0 Portugal
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 42%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Colombia 0-0 Portugal: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia win at home.
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Colombia -4 and Portugal +4.
On our player board, the squads moved Colombia +77 (16 appearances) · Portugal -41 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +50 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 42/26/32 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 42%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Colombia v Portugal before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.