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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Wed 1 Jul · 20:00 UTC · 22:00 CEST

full time

Belgium3–2Senegal

2035+109rating1880-179thfifa15thdown 1

Called it. As forecast.

Belgium to win

home 45% ✓draw 26%away 30%

sealed Mon 29 Jun · 19:54 UTC · 21:54 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:54:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Belgium

ProofXI rating

2035+109 this year

1926 → 2035 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

9thheld on the latest list

8th → 9th · 6 lists

Senegal

ProofXI rating

1880-17 this year

1897 → 1880 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

15thdown 1 place on the latest list

19th → 15th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Belgium by 155 points

How we got hereWe make Belgium the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Belgium rating edge+71
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+71

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +71 edge into 45% / 26% / 30% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Belgium

1.4

expected goals

Senegal

1.2

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–010 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–08 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Belgium 31 in 100, Senegal 24 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Belgium win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: Belgium win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Belgium4-2-3-1

  1. 1Thibaut CourtoisG2080
  2. 21Timothy CastagneD1950
  3. 4Brandon MecheleD1925
  4. 3Arthur TheateD1781
  5. 5Maxim De CuyperD1929
  6. 8Youri TielemansM2246
  7. 20Hans VanakenM1969
  8. 10Leandro TrossardM2208
  9. 7Kevin De BruyneM2072
  10. 11Jérémy DokuM2193
  11. 17Charles De KetelaereF1968

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Senegal4-3-3

  1. 23Mory DiawG~1648 provisional
  2. 15Krépin DiattaD1773
  3. 6Pathé Ismaël CissD~1760 provisional
  4. 19Moussa NiakhatéD~1780 provisional
  5. 14Ismail JakobsD1757
  6. 21Habib DiarraM~1828 provisional
  7. 5Idrissa Gana GueyeM1824
  8. 26Pape GueyeM1808
  9. 13Iliman NdiayeF1804
  10. 18Ismaïla SarrF1919
  11. 10Sadio ManéF1946

7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:02:41 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 25'H. Diarragoal
  2. 46'R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaeresub
  3. 51'I. Sarrgoalassist M. Niakhate
  4. 56'N. Raskin for K. De Bruynesub
  5. 56'D. Lukebakio for J. Dokusub
  6. 63'D. Moreira for H. Vanakensub
  7. 66'L. Camara for P. Gueyesub
  8. 73'I. Mbaye for I. Ndiayesub
  9. 73'P. M. Sarr for H. Diarrasub
  10. 78'T. Meunier for M. De Cuypersub
  11. 86'R. Lukakugoalassist T. Meunier
  12. 89'Y. Tielemansgoalassist L. Trossard
  13. 93'N. Jackson for S. Manesub
  14. 93'M. Diouf for I. Jakobssub
  15. 96'B. Sapoko Ndiaye for I. Gueyesub
  16. 109'A. Onana for L. Trossardsub
  17. 120+5'Y. Tielemansgoal (pen)

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 02 Jul 2026 00:02:47 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Belgium 3-2 Senegal

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed Belgium to win at 45%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Belgium 3-2 Senegal: the Belgium win, an outcome we had at 45 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Belgium +24 and Senegal -24.

On our player board, the squads moved Belgium +103 (17 appearances) · Senegal -113 (17 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +71 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 45/26/30 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Belgium · 45%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Belgium v Senegal before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.