Knockouts
who reaches the Round of 32 · top two of each group + the eight best thirds · the groups
Live · projected to go through
32 of 48 survive.
After 72 of 72 group games, 32 sides are all but through. The rest scrap for what is left, goal difference now in play, and the cut line below is where the tournament gets honest.
On the bubble
The line runs right through England (100%), Croatia (100%), Ghana (100%), South Korea (0%), Czech Republic (0%), Qatar (0%). A goal either way in the group stage flips who is on which side of it.
As it stands · the third-place race
after 72 of 72 group games played · graded results only · 8 third-place seats
Top two of every group go through automatically. These are the sides currently outside that line, ranked by their chance of taking one of the 8 third-place seats. Teams from different groups never meet, so there is no head-to-head between them, goal difference is the first tiebreaker, and the gap below is what a banked cushion is worth.
- Bosnia & HerzegovinaGroup B · now 3rd · 4 pts, -1 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 50%
- ParaguayGroup D · now 3rd · 4 pts, -2 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 51%
- EcuadorGroup E · now 3rd · 4 pts, 0 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 100%
- SwedenGroup F · now 3rd · 4 pts, 0 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 100%
- SenegalGroup I · now 3rd · 3 pts, +2 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 25%
- AlgeriaGroup J · now 3rd · 4 pts, -2 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 50%
- DR CongoGroup K · now 3rd · 4 pts, +1 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 100%
- GhanaGroup L · now 3rd · 4 pts, 0 GD · 100% to finish 3rd100%points 100%
- South KoreaGroup A · now 3rd · 3 pts, -1 GD · 100% to finish 3rd0%points 25%
- ScotlandGroup C · now 3rd · 3 pts, -3 GD · 100% to finish 3rd0%points 26%
- IranGroup G · now 3rd · 3 pts, 0 GD · 100% to finish 3rd0%points 25%
- UruguayGroup H · now 3rd · 2 pts, -1 GD · 100% to finish 3rd0%points 0%
seat chance is how often they finish 3rd and still make the best 8. “with goal difference” ranks level sides on real banked GD then goals; “points” breaks the tie by lot, inventing no scoreline. The gap is what the cushion is worth.
The field · live, likeliest first
- 1MexicoGroup A100%sealed 90%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Blikely Canada 100% · Switzerland 0% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 2South AfricaGroup A100%sealed 34%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Blikely Canada 100% · Switzerland 0% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 3SwitzerlandGroup B100%sealed 94%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Alikely South Africa 100% · Mexico 0% · South Korea 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 4CanadaGroup B100%sealed 89%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Alikely South Africa 100% · Mexico 0% · South Korea 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 5Bosnia & HerzegovinaGroup B100%sealed 50%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Alikely South Africa 100% · Mexico 0% · South Korea 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely USA 100% · Turkey 0% · Paraguay 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 6BrazilGroup C100%sealed 93%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet the runner-up of Group Flikely Japan 100% · Netherlands 0% · Sweden 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Flikely Netherlands 100% · Japan 0% · Sweden 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 7MoroccoGroup C100%sealed 85%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Flikely Japan 100% · Netherlands 0% · Sweden 0%
- 2nd100% · meet the winner of Group Flikely Netherlands 100% · Japan 0% · Sweden 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 8ParaguayGroup D100%sealed 71%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Glikely Egypt 100% · Belgium 0% · Iran 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely Germany 100% · Ecuador 0% · Ivory Coast 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 9AustraliaGroup D100%sealed 68%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Glikely Egypt 100% · Belgium 0% · Iran 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Colombia 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 10USAGroup D100%sealed 52%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Glikely Egypt 100% · Belgium 0% · Iran 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Colombia 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 11EcuadorGroup E100%sealed 92%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Ilikely Norway 100% · France 0% · Senegal 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely Mexico 100% · South Korea 0% · Czech Republic 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 12GermanyGroup E100%sealed 91%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Ilikely Norway 100% · France 0% · Senegal 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (6 in play)likely Mexico 100% · England 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 13Ivory CoastGroup E100%sealed 64%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Ilikely Norway 100% · France 0% · Senegal 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (6 in play)likely Mexico 100% · England 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 14NetherlandsGroup F100%sealed 90%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet the runner-up of Group Clikely Morocco 100% · Brazil 0% · Scotland 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Clikely Brazil 100% · Morocco 0% · Scotland 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (5 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 15JapanGroup F100%sealed 87%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Clikely Morocco 100% · Brazil 0% · Scotland 0%
- 2nd100% · meet the winner of Group Clikely Brazil 100% · Morocco 0% · Scotland 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (5 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 16SwedenGroup F100%sealed 49%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Clikely Morocco 100% · Brazil 0% · Scotland 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Clikely Brazil 100% · Morocco 0% · Scotland 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely France 100% · Norway 0% · Senegal 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 17BelgiumGroup G100%sealed 87%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Dlikely Australia 100% · Turkey 0% · Paraguay 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely France 100% · Switzerland 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 18EgyptGroup G100%sealed 60%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Dlikely Australia 100% · Turkey 0% · Paraguay 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely France 100% · Switzerland 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 19SpainGroup H100%sealed 99%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet the runner-up of Group Jlikely Austria 100% · Argentina 0% · Algeria 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Jlikely Argentina 100% · Austria 0% · Algeria 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (4 in play)likely France 100% · Mexico 100% · England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 20Cape VerdeGroup H100%sealed 34%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Jlikely Austria 100% · Argentina 0% · Algeria 0%
- 2nd100% · meet the winner of Group Jlikely Argentina 100% · Austria 0% · Algeria 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (4 in play)likely France 100% · Mexico 100% · England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 21FranceGroup I100%sealed 93%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100% · Brazil 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Elikely Ivory Coast 100% · Ecuador 0% · Germany 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (6 in play)likely Mexico 100% · England 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 22NorwayGroup I100%sealed 75%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100% · Brazil 0%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Elikely Ivory Coast 100% · Ecuador 0% · Germany 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (6 in play)likely Mexico 100% · England 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 23SenegalGroup I100%sealed 68% · points 25%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100% · Brazil 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Elikely Ivory Coast 100% · Ecuador 0% · Germany 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely Belgium 100% · Iran 0% · Egypt 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 24ArgentinaGroup J100%sealed 97%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet the runner-up of Group Hlikely Cape Verde 100% · Spain 0% · Uruguay 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Hlikely Spain 100% · Uruguay 0% · Saudi Arabia 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (5 in play)likely England 100% · USA 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 25AustriaGroup J100%sealed 66%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Hlikely Cape Verde 100% · Spain 0% · Uruguay 0%
- 2nd100% · meet the winner of Group Hlikely Spain 100% · Uruguay 0% · Saudi Arabia 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (5 in play)likely England 100% · USA 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 26AlgeriaGroup J100%sealed 61%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Hlikely Cape Verde 100% · Spain 0% · Uruguay 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Hlikely Spain 100% · Uruguay 0% · Saudi Arabia 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely Switzerland 100% · Canada 0% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 27ColombiaGroup K100%sealed 90%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Llikely Croatia 100% · England 0% · Panama 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (1 in play)likely England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 28PortugalGroup K100%sealed 86%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Llikely Croatia 100% · England 0% · Panama 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (1 in play)likely England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 29DR CongoGroup K100%sealed 39%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Llikely Croatia 100% · England 0% · Panama 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely England 100% · Croatia 0% · Panama 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 30EnglandGroup L100%sealed 95%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st100% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Klikely Portugal 100% · Colombia 0% · Uzbekistan 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (1 in play)likely Colombia 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 31CroatiaGroup L100%sealed 84%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd100% · meet the runner-up of Group Klikely Portugal 100% · Colombia 0% · Uzbekistan 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (1 in play)likely Colombia 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 32GhanaGroup L100%sealed 21%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Klikely Portugal 100% · Colombia 0% · Uzbekistan 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winnerlikely Colombia 100% · Portugal 0% · Uzbekistan 0%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 33South KoreaGroup A0%sealed 79% · points 25%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Blikely Canada 100% · Switzerland 0% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 34Czech RepublicGroup A0%sealed 64%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Blikely Canada 100% · Switzerland 0% · Bosnia & Herzegovina 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 35QatarGroup B0%sealed 32%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Alikely South Africa 100% · Mexico 0% · South Korea 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely Germany 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 36ScotlandGroup C0%sealed 60% · points 26%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Flikely Japan 100% · Netherlands 0% · Sweden 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Flikely Netherlands 100% · Japan 0% · Sweden 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 37HaitiGroup C0%sealed 30%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Flikely Japan 100% · Netherlands 0% · Sweden 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Flikely Netherlands 100% · Japan 0% · Sweden 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 38TurkeyGroup D0%sealed 79%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Ecuador 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Glikely Egypt 100% · Belgium 0% · Iran 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (3 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Colombia 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 39CuraçaoGroup E0%sealed 21%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Bosnia & Herzegovina 100% · Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Ilikely Norway 100% · France 0% · Senegal 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (6 in play)likely Mexico 100% · England 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 40TunisiaGroup F0%sealed 41%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Clikely Morocco 100% · Brazil 0% · Scotland 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Clikely Brazil 100% · Morocco 0% · Scotland 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (5 in play)likely Germany 100% · France 100% · Mexico 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 41IranGroup G0%sealed 78% · points 25%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Dlikely Australia 100% · Turkey 0% · Paraguay 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely France 100% · Switzerland 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 42New ZealandGroup G0%sealed 44%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Dlikely Australia 100% · Turkey 0% · Paraguay 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (2 in play)likely France 100% · Switzerland 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 43UruguayGroup H0%sealed 88%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Jlikely Austria 100% · Argentina 0% · Algeria 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Jlikely Argentina 100% · Austria 0% · Algeria 0%
- 3rd100% · meet a group winner (4 in play)likely France 100% · Mexico 100% · England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 44Saudi ArabiaGroup H0%sealed 40%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Jlikely Austria 100% · Argentina 0% · Algeria 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Jlikely Argentina 100% · Austria 0% · Algeria 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (4 in play)likely France 100% · Mexico 100% · England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 45IraqGroup I0%sealed 31%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Sweden 100% · Brazil 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Elikely Ivory Coast 100% · Ecuador 0% · Germany 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (6 in play)likely Mexico 100% · England 100% · USA 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 46JordanGroup J0%sealed 40%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet the runner-up of Group Hlikely Cape Verde 100% · Spain 0% · Uruguay 0%
- 2nd0% · meet the winner of Group Hlikely Spain 100% · Uruguay 0% · Saudi Arabia 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (5 in play)likely England 100% · USA 100% · Belgium 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 47UzbekistanGroup K0%sealed 52%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Paraguay 100% · Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Llikely Croatia 100% · England 0% · Panama 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (1 in play)likely England 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
- 48PanamaGroup L0%sealed 67%
their R32 path ↓hide path ↑
If they finish…
- 1st0% · meet a best third (5 groups in play)likely Ecuador 100% · Senegal 100% · Algeria 100%
- 2nd0% · meet the runner-up of Group Klikely Portugal 100% · Colombia 0% · Uzbekistan 0%
- 3rd0% · meet a group winner (1 in play)likely Colombia 100%
R32 pairings are fixed before kickoff; opponents move with results. A third’s slot follows FIFA’s Annex C table, which group winner it meets depends on the other qualifying thirds, shown here as the live distribution.
20,000 simulations · advance = top two of the group, or one of the eight best third places · level sides ranked on real banked goal difference
Sealed 2026-06-10, before a ball was kicked; the live numbers re-run the same engine and seed with played games fixed to their real scores. draw: openfootball (CC0) · ratings: our national Elo from CC0 international results. Goal difference counts only the games actually played, never a scoreline the model invented. The sealed call stays exactly where we left it; nothing here is deleted.