Dan Burn

1910 full roster Elo (+1 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at England's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1899

age curve at 33 (defences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-10

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+21

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1909

form: national-team results, 23 appearances1499 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+1

full roster Elo · with results

1910

Where the +21 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

4.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

87th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(86.8th) = 46 × 1.12 × 0.4 (position weight) = +21

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-10. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1838the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×3.29

ageage 33, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year

×0.30

defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.58

individual skillmeasured 34th percentile of peers

×0.87

our estimate

≈ €4.1m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.