Ollie Watkins

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
30
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
England
our board
#79
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
2880′
44 appearances
transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
25.00
98th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: England · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1985 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

2001 full roster Elo (+16 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at England's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1961
age curve at 30 (offences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -22
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +47
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1985
form: national-team results, 44 appearances2880 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +16
full roster Elo · with results: 2001

Where the +47 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 25.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank: 98th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(97.9th) = 46 × 2.03 × 0.5 (position weight) = +47

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#79 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +16 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

We don’t price him yet. Our fee model leans on the level he plays at, and no trusted source has given us his club’s strength. We’d rather show nothing than a number we don’t trust.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €28m (2020-09). The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

2020-09-09Brentford → Aston Villa€28m
2017-07-18Exeter City → Brentfordundisclosed
2015-07-01Weston-super-Mare → Exeter Cityundisclosed
2014-12-08Exeter City → Weston-super-Mareloan

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · England’s record

v DR CongoSealed
at Panama0–2Called it
v Ghana0–0Missed it
v Croatia4–2Called it

The newsroom’s calls on England. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.