full time
Tunisia0–4Japan
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · 53,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Japan to win
sealed Fri 19 Jun · 19:30 UTC · 21:30 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Fri, 19 Jun 2026 19:30:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1660-72 this year
1732 → 1660 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
45thdown 1 place on the latest list
41st → 45th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1972+10 this year
1962 → 1972 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
18thheld on the latest list
18th → 18th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Japan by 312 points
Head to head
Japan have had the better of this fixture.
6 prior meetings · Tunisia 1, drawn 0, Japan 5 · goals 3-10
- 2026Tunisia 0-4 Japan· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2022Japan 0-3 Tunisia· Kirin Cup
- 2015Japan 2-0 Tunisia· Kirin Challenge Cup
- 2003Tunisia 0-1 Japan· Friendly
- 2002Japan 2-0 Tunisia· FIFA World Cup
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Japan the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -308 edge into 12% / 20% / 69% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Tunisia
0.8
expected goals
Japan
1.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–113 in 100
- 0–213 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Tunisia 16 in 100, Japan 47 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Japan win on the road.✓ right
- Japan win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Japan keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Tunisia3-4-2-1
- 16Aymen DahmenG~1522 provisional
- 4Omar RekikD~1544 provisional
- 3Montassar TalbiD~1686 provisional
- 6Dylan BronnD~1571 provisional
- 20Yan ValeryM1541
- 17Ellyes SkhiriM1644
- 10Hannibal MejbriM~1678 provisional
- 2Ali AbdiM1572
- 8Elias SaadF~1529 provisional
- 26Sebastian TounektiF~1564 provisional
- 25Anis Ben SlimaneF~1569 provisional
3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Abdelmouhib ChamakhG~1501 provisional
- 22Sabri Ben HessenG~1573 provisional
- 5Adem ArousD~1582 provisional
- 21Amine Ben HmidaD~1573 provisional
- 23Moataz NefatiD~1549 provisional
- 24Raed ChikhaouiD~1549 provisional
- 7Elias AchouriM~1675 provisional
- 11Ismael GharbiF1633
- 15Mohamed Belhadj MahmoudM~1564 provisional
- 12Mortadha Ben OuanesM~1557 provisional
- 13Rani KhediraM1530
- 9Hazem MastouriF~1596 provisional
- 19Firas ChaouatF~1555 provisional
- 14Khalil AyariF~1559 provisional
- 18Rayan ElloumiF~1536 provisional
Japan3-4-2-1
- 1Zion SuzukiG~1723 provisional
- 22Takehiro TomiyasuD1732
- 4Ko ItakuraD~1724 provisional
- 21Hiroki ItōD2050
- 10Ritsu DoanM1784
- 24Kaishu SanoM~1736 provisional
- 15Daichi KamadaM1891
- 13Keito NakamuraM~1706 provisional
- 14Junya ItoF~1690 provisional
- 7Ao TanakaF~1930 provisional
- 18Ayase UedaF1767
5 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Keisuke OsakoG~1607 provisional
- 23Tomoki HayakawaG~1607 provisional
- 20Ayumu SekoD~1690 provisional
- 25Junnosuke SuzukiD~1678 provisional
- 3Shogo TaniguchiD~1709 provisional
- 16Tsuyoshi WatanabeD~1680 provisional
- 2Yukinari SugawaraD1540
- 5Yuto NagatomoD~1566 provisional
- 17Yuito SuzukiM~1736 provisional
- 11Daizen MaedaF1660
- 9Keisuke GotoF1710
- 26Kento ShiogaiF~1669 provisional
- 19Koki OgawaF~1674 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 03:21:10 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 4'D. Kamadagoalassist K. Nakamura
- 31'A. Uedagoalassist K. Itakura
- 46'I. Gharbi for E. Saadsub
- 46'M. Ben Hamida for D. Bronnsub
- 65'F. Chaouat for S. Tounektisub
- 69'J. Itogoalassist A. Ueda
- 73'J. Suzuki for D. Kamadasub
- 74'Y. Sugawara for R. Doansub
- 79'Y. Suzuki for K. Nakamurasub
- 79'A. Seko for T. Tomiyasusub
- 83'A. Uedagoalassist K. Sano
- 84'K. Goto for A. Uedasub
- 90+1'E. Achouri for A. Abdisub
- 90+1'R. Khedira for E. Skhirisub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 21 Jun 2026 06:53:14 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Tunisia 0-4 Japan
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Japan to win at 69%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Tunisia 0-4 Japan: the Japan win, an outcome we had at 69 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Tunisia -14 and Japan +14.
On our player board, the squads moved Tunisia -264 (16 appearances) · Japan +308 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -308 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 12/20/69 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Japan · 69%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Tunisia v Japan before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.