full time
Spain0–0Cape Verde Islands
Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta · 71,000 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Spain to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2322+112 this year
2210 → 2322 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
2ndheld on the latest list
1st → 2nd · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1698+65 this year
1633 → 1698 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
67thup 2 places on the latest list
67th → 67th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Spain by 624 points
How we got hereWe make Spain the stronger side, and seal the call at about 9 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +557 edge into 85% / 12% / 3% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Spain
2.2
expected goals
Cape Verde Islands
0.4
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 2–017 in 100
- 1–016 in 100
- 3–012 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Spain 64 in 100, Cape Verde Islands 12 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Spain win at home.✗ wrong
- Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Spain keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Spain4-3-3
- 23Unai SimónG1766
- 5Marcos LlorenteD1987
- 22Pau CubarsíD2123
- 14Aymeric LaporteD1801
- 24Marc CucurellaD2002
- 8Fabián RuizM2061
- 16RodriM2337
- 20PedriM2251
- 7Ferran TorresF2017
- 21Mikel OyarzabalF1945
- 9Pablo GaviF1656
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1David RayaG2247
- 13Joan GarcíaG~2165 provisional
- 2Marc PubillD~1948 provisional
- 4Eric GarcíaD2137
- 12Pedro PorroD1958
- 3Alejandro GrimaldoD1878
- 6Mikel MerinoM2121
- 15Alex BaenaM1950
- 18Martín ZubimendiM2184
- 10Dani OlmoM2159
- 17Nico WilliamsF1844
- 19Lamine YamalF2242
- 11Yéremy PinoM~1887 provisional
- 25Victor MuñozF~1794 provisional
- 26Borja IglesiasF1846
Cape Verde4-1-4-1
- 1VozinhaG~1536 provisional
- 22Steven MoreiraD~1521 provisional
- 4PicoD~1547 provisional
- 3Diney BorgesD~1550 provisional
- 13Sidny Lopes CabralD~1813 provisional
- 6Kevin LeniniM~1567 provisional
- 20Ryan MendesM~1488 provisional
- 15Laros DuarteM~1517 provisional
- 10Jamiro MonteiroM~1507 provisional
- 7Jovane CabralM1443
- 19Dailon Rocha LivramentoF~1440 provisional
1 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Márcio RosaG~1508 provisional
- 23CJ Dos SantosG~1501 provisional
- 2StopiraD~1490 provisional
- 5Logan CostaD~1708 provisional
- 24Wagner PinaD~1593 provisional
- 25Kelvin PiresD~1521 provisional
- 8João PauloM~1528 provisional
- 11Garry RodriguesF1484
- 14Deroy DuarteM~1499 provisional
- 16Yannick SemedoM~1502 provisional
- 17Willy SemedoF~1500 provisional
- 18Telmo ArcanjoM~1541 provisional
- 26Hélio VarelaF~1527 provisional
- 21Nuno Da CostaF~1493 provisional
- 9Gilson TavaresF~1519 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:03:17 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 61'W. Semedo for J. Cabralsub
- 61'N. Da Costa for D. Livramentosub
- 61'D. Duarte for L. Duartesub
- 71'M. Merino for F. Ruizsub
- 71'Lamine Yamal for Gavisub
- 76'Joao Paulo for S. Lopes Cabralsub
- 79'T. Arcanjo for J. Monteirosub
- 81'D. Olmo for F. Torressub
- 87'N. Williams for Rodrisub
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:58:59 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Spain to win at 85%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Spain 0-0 Cape Verde Islands: the draw, an outcome we had at 12 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Spain win at home.
- Spain win comfortably, by two goals or more.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Spain -28 and Cape Verde Islands +28.
On our player board, the squads moved Spain -105 (15 appearances) · Cape Verde Islands +136 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +557 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 85/12/3 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Spain · 85%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Spain v Cape Verde Islands before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.