full time
Saudi Arabia1–1Uruguay
Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · 64,767 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Uruguay to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1704+16 this year
1688 → 1704 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
61stheld on the latest list
60th → 61st · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1923-57 this year
1980 → 1923 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
16thup 1 place on the latest list
16th → 16th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Uruguay by 219 points
Head to head
Nothing between them down the years. Pick a side.
3 prior meetings · Saudi Arabia 1, drawn 1, Uruguay 1 · goals 4-4
- 2018Uruguay 1-0 Saudi Arabia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2014Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay· Friendly
- 2002Saudi Arabia 3-2 Uruguay· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Uruguay the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -283 edge into 13% / 21% / 66% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Saudi Arabia
0.8
expected goals
Uruguay
1.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–113 in 100
- 0–212 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Saudi Arabia 17 in 100, Uruguay 45 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Uruguay win on the road.✗ wrong
- Uruguay win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Uruguay keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Saudi Arabia4-4-2
- 21Mohammed Al-OwaisG~1535 provisional
- 12Saud AbdulhamidD1570
- 5Hassan AltambaktiD~1717 provisional
- 4Abdulelah Al-AmriD~1637 provisional
- 24Moteb Al-HarbiD~1650 provisional
- 26Mohammed Abu Al-ShamatM~1699 provisional
- 23Mohamed KannoM~1597 provisional
- 15Abdullah Al-KhaibariM~1578 provisional
- 10Salem Al-DawsariM~1634 provisional
- 7Musab Al JuwayrF~1648 provisional
- 9Firas Al-BuraikanF~1550 provisional
1 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Ahmed Al-KassarG~1533 provisional
- 1Nawaf Al-AqidiG~1548 provisional
- 3Ali LajamiD~1580 provisional
- 25Jehad ThakriD~1545 provisional
- 14Hassan KadeshD~1573 provisional
- 2Ali MajrashiD~1671 provisional
- 13Nawaf BoushalD~1692 provisional
- 6Nasser Al-DawsariM~1619 provisional
- 16Ziyad AljohaniM~1576 provisional
- 8Ayman YahyaM~1557 provisional
- 18Ala'a Al-HejjiMunrated
- 11Saleh Al-ShehriF~1530 provisional
- 17Khalid Al-GhannamF~1576 provisional
- 19Abdullah Al-HamdanF~1548 provisional
- 20Sultan MandashF~1601 provisional
Uruguay4-4-2
- 23Fernando MusleraG~1649 provisional
- 13Guillermo VarelaD~1865 provisional
- 3Sebastián CáceresD~1597 provisional
- 16Mathías OliveraD1879
- 17Matías ViñaD1827
- 8Federico ValverdeM2123
- 5Manuel UgarteM1955
- 6Rodrigo BentancurM1849
- 20Maximiliano AraújoM1913
- 21Federico ViñasF~1530 provisional
- 9Darwin NúñezF1824
7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Santiago MeleG~1768 provisional
- 1Sergio RochetG~1875 provisional
- 2José María GiménezD1923
- 25Juan SanabriaM~1593 provisional
- 24Santiago BuenoD1729
- 22Joaquín PiquerezD~1914 provisional
- 18Brian RodríguezF~1664 provisional
- 11Facundo PellistriM1663
- 15Emiliano MartínezM1799
- 14Agustín CanobbioF~1863 provisional
- 7Nicolás de la CruzM~1877 provisional
- 26Rodrigo ZalazarM1866
- 19Rodrigo AguirreF~1762 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 21:20:47 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 41'A. Al Amrigoal
- 46'J. Sanabria for M. Vinasub
- 46'A. Canobbio for D. Nunezsub
- 63'N. Al Dawsari for M. Al Juwayrsub
- 72'N. de la Cruz for M. Ugartesub
- 80'M. Araujogoal
- 81'B. Rodriguez for M. Araujosub
- 81'N. Boushal for M. Abu Al Shamatsub
- 90'R. Aguirre for F. Vinassub
- 90+3'A. Lajami for S. Abdulhamidsub
- 90+3'A. Al Hamdan for M. Al Harbisub
- 90+3'A. Hejji for F. Al Buraikansub
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 16 Jun 2026 00:20:56 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Uruguay to win at 66%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Saudi Arabia 1-1 Uruguay: the draw, an outcome we had at 21 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Uruguay win on the road.
- Uruguay win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Uruguay keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Saudi Arabia +20 and Uruguay -20.
On our player board, the squads moved Saudi Arabia +85 (15 appearances) · Uruguay -81 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -283 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 13/21/66 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Uruguay · 66%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Saudi Arabia v Uruguay before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.