full time
Portugal1–1Congo DR
NRG Stadium, Houston · 72,220 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Portugal to win
sealed Mon 15 Jun · 20:49 UTC · 22:49 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Mon, 15 Jun 2026 20:49:12 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2050-11 this year
2061 → 2050 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
5thheld on the latest list
6th → 5th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1809+110 this year
1699 → 1809 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
46thheld on the latest list
56th → 46th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Portugal by 241 points
How we got hereWe make Portugal the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +268 edge into 65% / 21% / 14% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Portugal
1.8
expected goals
Congo DR
0.8
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–013 in 100
- 2–012 in 100
- 1–112 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Portugal 44 in 100, Congo DR 17 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Portugal win at home.✗ wrong
- Portugal win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Portugal keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Portugal4-2-3-1
- 1Diogo CostaG1937
- 20João CanceloD2087
- 4Tomás AraújoD1908
- 13Renato VeigaD1792
- 25Nuno MendesD2065
- 15João NevesM2118
- 23VitinhaM2150
- 10Bernardo SilvaM2155
- 8Bruno FernandesM2452
- 18Pedro NetoM1961
- 7Cristiano RonaldoF1926
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12José SáG1684
- 22Rui SilvaG~1917 provisional
- 2Nélson SemedoD1759
- 3Rúben DiasD2101
- 5Diogo DalotD1976
- 14Gonçalo InácioD1980
- 6Matheus NunesM2167
- 24Samú CostaM~1793 provisional
- 21Rúben NevesM1855
- 16Francisco TrincãoF1934
- 19Gonçalo GuedesF1782
- 9Gonçalo RamosF~1964 provisional
- 11João FélixF2090
- 17Rafael LeãoF1933
- 26Francisco ConceiçãoF1916
DR Congo5-3-2
- 1Lionel Mpasi NzauG~1607 provisional
- 2Aaron Wan-BissakaD1693
- 22Chancel MbembaD1745
- 4Axel TuanzebeD1603
- 3Steve KapuadiD~1534 provisional
- 26Arthur MasuakuD1554
- 8Samuel MoutoussamyM1527
- 6Ngal'ayel MukauM1744
- 25Edo KayembeM~1512 provisional
- 17Cédric BakambuF~1740 provisional
- 20Yoane WissaF1925
7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Timothy FayuluG~1502 provisional
- 21Matthieu EpoloG~1527 provisional
- 5Dylan BatubinsikaD1523
- 12Joris KayembeD~1536 provisional
- 24Gedeon KaluluD~1543 provisional
- 7Nathanaël MbukuF~1548 provisional
- 10Théo BongondaM~1524 provisional
- 14Noah SadikiM1790
- 15Aaron TshibolaM~1475 provisional
- 18Charles PickelM~1615 provisional
- 9Brian CipengaF~1530 provisional
- 11Gaël KakutaM~1483 provisional
- 13Meschak EliaF1514
- 19Fiston MayeleF~1532 provisional
- 23Simon BanzaF1543
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 16:21:00 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 6'J. Nevesgoalassist P. Neto
- 45+5'Y. Wissagoalassist A. Masuaku
- 46'F. Conceicao for B. Silvasub
- 57'N. Sadiki for N. Mukausub
- 71'R. Leao for P. Netosub
- 72'N. Semedo for N. Mendessub
- 74'C. Pickel for E. Kayembesub
- 74'J. Kayembe for A. Masuakusub
- 83'G. Ramos for Vitinhasub
- 85'S. Banza for C. Bakambusub
- 85'G. Kalulu for A. Wan-Bissakasub
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 17 Jun 2026 19:20:59 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Portugal 1-1 Congo DR
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Portugal to win at 65%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Portugal 1-1 Congo DR: the draw, an outcome we had at 21 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Portugal win at home.
- Portugal win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Portugal keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Portugal -19 and Congo DR +19.
On our player board, the squads moved Portugal -103 (15 appearances) · Congo DR +100 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +268 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 65/21/14 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Portugal · 65%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Portugal v Congo DR before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.