full time
Mexico2–3England
Missed it. It stays up.
Honours even
sealed Fri 3 Jul · 19:08 UTC · 21:08 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Fri, 03 Jul 2026 19:08:05 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2010+39 this year
1971 → 2010 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
14thup 1 place on the latest list
15th → 14th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2195+150 this year
2045 → 2195 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
4thheld on the latest list
4th → 4th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: England by 185 points
Head to head
England have had the better of this fixture.
11 prior meetings · Mexico 2, drawn 1, England 8 · goals 6-30
- 2026Mexico 2-3 England· FIFA World Cup
- 2010England 3-1 Mexico· Friendly
- 2001England 4-0 Mexico· Friendly
- 1997England 2-0 Mexico· Friendly
- 1986Mexico 0-3 England· Friendly· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make England the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -6 edge into 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Mexico
1.3
expected goals
England
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–28 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Mexico 27 in 100, England 28 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Mexico and England share the points.✗ wrong
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Mexico4-3-3
- 1Raúl RangelG~1718 provisional
- 2Jorge SánchezD1758
- 3César MontesD~1634 provisional
- 5Johan VásquezD~1779 provisional
- 23Jesús GallardoD~1747 provisional
- 19Gilberto MoraM~1685 provisional
- 6Erik LiraM~1764 provisional
- 7Luis RomoM~1799 provisional
- 25Roberto AlvaradoF~1845 provisional
- 9Raúl JiménezF2002
- 16Julián QuiñonesF~1868 provisional
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Carlos AcevedoG~1566 provisional
- 13Guillermo OchoaG~1575 provisional
- 15Israel ReyesD~1688 provisional
- 20Mateo ChávezD~1615 provisional
- 4Edson ÁlvarezM1720
- 8Álvaro FidalgoM~1891 provisional
- 17Orbelín PinedaM~1739 provisional
- 18Obed VargasM~1818 provisional
- 24Luis ChávezM~1647 provisional
- 26Brian GutiérrezM~1744 provisional
- 10Alexis VegaF~1684 provisional
- 21César HuertaM1643
- 11Santiago GiménezF1833
- 14Armando GonzálezF~1755 provisional
- 22Guillermo MartínezF~1639 provisional
England4-2-3-1
- 1Jordan PickfordG1960
- 26Jarell QuansahD1893
- 2Ezri KonsaD2020
- 6Marc GuéhiD~2154 provisional
- 3Nico O'ReillyD1712
- 8Elliot AndersonM2070
- 4Declan RiceM2462
- 7Bukayo SakaM2443
- 10Jude BellinghamM2147
- 18Anthony GordonM1985
- 9Harry KaneF2362
10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 13Dean HendersonG1953
- 23James TraffordG1897
- 5John StonesD1992
- 12Trevoh ChalobahDunrated
- 15Dan BurnD2049
- 24Reece JamesD1957
- 25Djed SpenceD1848
- 14Jordan HendersonM1879
- 16Kobbie MainooM2033
- 17Morgan RogersM2095
- 21Eberechi EzeM2319
- 11Marcus RashfordF2103
- 19Ollie WatkinsF2009
- 20Noni MaduekeF2211
- 22Ivan ToneyF1834
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 05 Jul 2026 23:44:21 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Mexico 2-3 England
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Honours even at 38%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Mexico 2-3 England: the England win, an outcome we had at 38 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Mexico and England share the points.
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Mexico -27 and England +27.
On our player board, the squads moved Mexico -54 (16 appearances) · England +49 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -6 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 36/26/38 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 38%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Mexico v England before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.