Álvaro Fidalgo

1834 full roster Elo (+20 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Mexico's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1790

age curve at 28 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-7

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+30

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1814

form: national-team results, 12 appearances732 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+20

full roster Elo · with results

1834

Where the +30 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

6.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

91th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(90.5th) = 46 × 1.31 × 0.5 (position weight) = +30

Where the +20 was earned

The earned line, opened up by competition. World Cup finals count 1.5×, qualifiers and cups 1×, friendlies and club football half, so a tournament night moves him most.

World Cup finals1 app · 66′

+6

international friendlies2 apps · 119′

+8

club football9 apps · 547′

+6

His latest nights

• 2026-06-11World Cup finals · 66′▲ +6
• 2026-06-05international friendlies · 59′ · team result only▲ +5
• 2026-05-31international friendlies · 60′ · team result only▲ +3
• 2026-05-23club football · 10′ · team result only▲ +0
• 2026-05-17club football · 45′ · team result only▼ −1

Each night’s move blends his team’s result with his own match stats, saves for keepers, tackles and duels for defenders, creation for midfielders, finishing up front. “Team result only” marks games where the feed carried no player stats.

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-11. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1747the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×2.28

ageage 28, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year

×0.82

midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.90

individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide

×1.00

our estimate

≈ €13m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.