full time
Germany4–5Paraguay
Missed it. It stays up.
Germany to win
sealed Sun 28 Jun · 08:48 UTC · 10:48 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Sun, 28 Jun 2026 08:48:30 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1991+1 this year
1990 → 1991 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
10thheld on the latest list
9th → 10th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1900-1 this year
1901 → 1900 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
41stdown 1 place on the latest list
39th → 41st · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Germany by 91 points
Head to head
Germany have had the better of this fixture.
2 prior meetings · Germany 1, drawn 1, Paraguay 0 · goals 4-3
- 2013Germany 3-3 Paraguay· Friendly
- 2002Germany 1-0 Paraguay· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Germany the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +98 edge into 48% / 25% / 27% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Germany
1.5
expected goals
Paraguay
1.1
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–010 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Germany 33 in 100, Paraguay 23 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Germany win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Germany win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Germany4-2-3-1
- 1Manuel NeuerG2005
- 6Joshua KimmichD2156
- 2Antonio RüdigerD1947
- 4Jonathan TahD2063
- 18Nathaniel BrownD1760
- 23Felix NmechaM2002
- 5Aleksandar PavlovićM2069
- 19Leroy SanéM1907
- 7Kai HavertzF2315
- 17Florian WirtzM2153
- 26Deniz UndavM1973
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 21Alexander NübelG1885
- 12Oliver BaumannG1815
- 22David RaumD1871
- 3Waldemar AntonD2039
- 24Malick ThiawD1917
- 13Pascal GroßM2029
- 16Angelo StillerM2019
- 25Assan OuédraogoMunrated
- 10Jamal MusialaM2199
- 9Jamie LewelingF1896
- 8Leon GoretzkaM2133
- 20Nadiem AmiriM1836
- 11Nick WoltemadeF~1908 provisional
- 14Maximilian BeierF1939
Paraguay4-5-1
- 12Orlando GillG~1579 provisional
- 4Juan CáceresD~1604 provisional
- 15Gustavo GómezD~1854 provisional
- 13José CanaleD~1711 provisional
- 6Junior AlonsoD~1685 provisional
- 10Miguel AlmirónM1543
- 16Damián BobadillaM~1740 provisional
- 14Andrés CubasM~1612 provisional
- 23Matías GalarzaM~1573 provisional
- 19Julio EncisoM1739
- 21Gabriel ÁvalosF~1541 provisional
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Gastón OlveiraG~1566 provisional
- 1Roberto FernándezG~1653 provisional
- 2Gustavo VelázquezD~1653 provisional
- 15Omar AldereteD~1807 provisional
- 5Fabián BalbuenaD~1706 provisional
- 26Alexandro MaidanaD~1550 provisional
- 11MauricioM~1873 provisional
- 20Braian OjedaM~1562 provisional
- 24Gustavo CaballeroF~1559 provisional
- 17Alejandro RomeroM~1558 provisional
- 7Ramón SosaF~1852 provisional
- 9Antonio SanabriaF~1580 provisional
- 18Alex ArceF~1648 provisional
- 25Isidro PittaF~1751 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:55:32 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 42'J. Encisogoalassist M. Galarza
- 46'L. Goretzka for F. Nmechasub
- 54'K. Havertzgoalassist F. Wirtz
- 55'G. Caballero for G. Avalossub
- 57'Mauricio for J. Encisosub
- 63'J. Musiala for D. Undavsub
- 79'W. Anton for A. Pavlovicsub
- 88'N. Woltemade for L. Sanesub
- 91'G. Velazquez for M. Almironsub
- 99'B. Ojeda for J. Caceressub
- 99'A. Sanabria for D. Bobadillasub
- 110'N. Amiri for F. Wirtzsub
- 110'M. Thiaw for A. Rudigersub
- 120+1'Mauriciogoal (pen)
- 120+2'Fabian Balbuena for J. Alonsosub
- 120+2'J. Kimmichgoal (pen)
- 120+2'G. Gomezgoal (pen)
- 120+3'J. Musialagoal (pen)
- 120+3'M. Galarzagoal (pen)
- 120+5'N. Amirigoal (pen)
- 120+6'J. Canalegoal (pen)
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 29 Jun 2026 23:58:42 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Germany 4-5 Paraguay
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Germany to win at 48%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Germany 4-5 Paraguay: the Paraguay win, an outcome we had at 27 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Germany win at home.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Germany -38 and Paraguay +38.
On our player board, the squads moved Germany -96 (17 appearances) · Paraguay +127 (17 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +98 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 48/25/27 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Germany · 48%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Germany v Paraguay before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.