Alex Arce

Club football at CS Independiente Rivadavia.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
30
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
Paraguay
club
CS Independiente Rivadavia
football-data.org
club tier
1635
our estimate · league-based
our board
#971
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
315′
7 appearances

Sourced

squad: Paraguay · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: CS Independiente Rivadaviafootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1661 ±61

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1643 full roster Elo (−18 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Paraguay's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1668
age curve at 30 (offences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -7
individual skill termour club xG models haven't seen enough of him for a confident read, so nothing is added, never guessed: +0
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1661
form: national-team results, 7 appearances315 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: -18
full roster Elo · with results: 1643

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-26. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#971 of 1424 rated players on our board.
vs his seed
The folded nights have cost him 18 points off his seed, kept on the record, like everything.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€3.5m–€14m ≈ €6.8m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1635the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×1.57
ageage 30, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year: ×0.55
attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×1.00
individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide: ×1.00
our estimate: ≈ €6.8m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €2.8m (2024-02). Our estimate today: ≈ €6.8m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: undervalued , we rate him 144% above his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

2025-07-07LDU Quito → Independ. Rivadaviaundisclosed
2025-07-05LDU de Quito → Independ. Rivadaviaundisclosed
2024-02-17Independ. Rivadavia → LDU de Quito€2.8m
2023-01-31Sportivo Ameliano → Independ. Rivadaviafree

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Paraguay’s record

at GermanySealed
v Australia0–0Called it
at Turkey0–1Missed it
at USA4–1Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Paraguay. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.