Aleksandar Pavlović

Club football at FC Bayern München.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
21
sourced with the squad
position
Midfield
Germany
club
FC Bayern München
football-data.org
club tier
2001
ClubElo strength
our board
#83
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1798′
27 appearances

Sourced

squad: Germany · Midfieldfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: FC Bayern Münchenfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1984 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1998 full roster Elo (+14 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~2011 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the midfield age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Germany's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 2006
age curve at 21 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls: -22
individual skill termour club xG models haven't seen enough of him for a confident read, so nothing is added, never guessed: +0
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1984
form: national-team results, 27 appearances1798 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +14
full roster Elo · with results: 1998

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-29. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#83 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +14 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€30m–€116m ≈ €59m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 2001the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×7.43
ageage 21, the resale premium a club pays for the years to come: ×1.23
midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×0.90
individual skillour xG model has no confident read on him, priced on club, age and role only, so the band is wide: ×1.00
our estimate: ≈ €59m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

In our coverage · Germany’s record

v ParaguaySealed
at Ecuador2–1Missed it
v Ivory Coast2–1Called it
v Curaçao7–1Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Germany. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.