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Fri 26 Jun · 19:00 UTC · 21:00 CEST · Group I

full time

Senegal5–0Iraq

1920+46rating1740+6515thdown 1fifa57th
N. Jackson2037talismanMerchas Doski1583

BMO Field, Toronto · 45,736 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Senegal to win

home 55% ✓draw 24%away 21%

sealed Thu 25 Jun · 08:57 UTC · 10:57 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:57:48 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Senegal

ProofXI rating

1920+46 this year

1874 → 1920 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

15thdown 1 place on the latest list

19th → 15th · 6 lists

Iraq

ProofXI rating

1740+65 this year

1675 → 1740 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

57thheld on the latest list

58th → 57th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Senegal by 180 points

How we got hereWe make Senegal the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Senegal rating edge+164
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+164

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +164 edge into 55% / 24% / 21% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Senegal

1.6

expected goals

Iraq

1.0

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–011 in 100
  • 2–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–010 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Senegal 37 in 100, Iraq 20 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Senegal win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: Senegal win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Senegal4-2-3-1

  1. 23Mory DiawG1654
  2. 15Krépin DiattaD1786
  3. 4Abdoulaye SeckD1593
  4. 19Moussa NiakhatéD1776
  5. 14Ismail JakobsD1776
  6. 5Idrissa Gana GueyeM1775
  7. 21Habib DiarraM1822
  8. 20Ibrahim MbayeM1586
  9. 8Lamine CamaraM1824
  10. 10Sadio ManéM1877
  11. 18Ismaïla SarrF1876

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Iraq4-1-4-1

  1. 22Ahmed BasilG1511
  2. 26Frans PutrosD1530
  3. 5Akam HashemD1509
  4. 2Rebin SulakaD1541
  5. 23Merchas DoskiD1583
  6. 16Amir Al-AmmariM1545
  7. 17Ali JasimM1490
  8. 8Ibrahim BayeshM1506
  9. 14Zidane IqbalM1569
  10. 11Ahmed QasemM1577
  11. 9Ali Al-HamadiF1516

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 18:21:14 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 4'H. Diarragoalassist A. Seck
  2. 16'M. Younis for A. Qasemsub
  3. 46'J. Hassan for A. Basilsub
  4. 56'I. Sarrgoalassist L. Camara
  5. 57'P. Gueye for H. Diarrasub
  6. 57'I. Ndiaye for I. Mbayesub
  7. 57'N. Jackson for L. Camarasub
  8. 58'A. Al Reeshawee for A. Jasimsub
  9. 58'A. Yousif for A. Al Hamadisub
  10. 58'P. Ciss for A. Secksub
  11. 59'P. Gueyegoalassist I. Sarr
  12. 67'K. Yakob for Z. Iqbalsub
  13. 71'P. Gueyegoalassist I. Ndiaye
  14. 81'A. Diao for I. Sarrsub
  15. 82'I. Ndiayegoalassist P. Gueye

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 21:05:08 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Senegal 5-0 Iraq

Verdict
right but lucky
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Senegal to win at 55%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Senegal 5-0 Iraq: the Senegal win, an outcome we had at 55 in 100.

The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • No blowout: Senegal win by a single goal at most, if at all.
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Senegal +34 and Iraq -34.

On our player board, the squads moved Senegal +124 (16 appearances) · Iraq -127 (14 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +164 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 55/24/21 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Senegal · 55%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Senegal v Iraq before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.