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Mon 22 Jun · 21:00 UTC · 23:00 CEST · Group I

full time

France3–0Iraq

2139+43rating1740+653rddown 2fifa57th
W. Saliba2162talismanMerchas Doski1583

Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia · 69,796 seats

Called it. As forecast.

France to win

home 78% ✓draw 16%away 7%

sealed Sat 20 Jun · 19:14 UTC · 21:14 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Sat, 20 Jun 2026 19:14:49 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

France

ProofXI rating

2139+43 this year

2096 → 2139 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

3rddown 2 places on the latest list

3rd → 3rd · 6 lists

Iraq

ProofXI rating

1740+65 this year

1675 → 1740 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

57thheld on the latest list

58th → 57th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: France by 399 points

How we got hereWe make France the stronger side, and seal the call at about 8 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

France rating edge+428
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+428

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +428 edge into 78% / 16% / 7% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

France

2.0

expected goals

Iraq

0.6

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 2–015 in 100
  • 1–014 in 100
  • 3–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–19 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: France 55 in 100, Iraq 13 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • France win at home.✓ right
  • France win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • France keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

France4-2-3-1

  1. 16Mike MaignanG1881
  2. 5Jules KoundéD2072
  3. 4Dayot UpamecanoD2110
  4. 17William SalibaD2162
  5. 3Lucas DigneD1999
  6. 6Manu KonéM1941
  7. 14Adrien RabiotM1889
  8. 11Michael OliseM2123
  9. 7Ousmane DembéléM2157
  10. 12Bradley BarcolaM2096
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF2106

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Iraq4-2-3-1

  1. 22Ahmed BasilG1511
  2. 3Hussein AliD1546
  3. 4Zaid TahseenD1507
  4. 5Akam HashemD1509
  5. 23Merchas DoskiD1583
  6. 16Amir Al-AmmariM1545
  7. 24Zaid IsmailM1526
  8. 8Ibrahim BayeshM1506
  9. 14Zidane IqbalM1569
  10. 11Ahmed QasemM1577
  11. 18Aymen HusseinF1557

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:21:05 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 14'Kylian Mbappégoalassist Michael Olise
  2. 26'Ali Al-Hamadi for Aymen Husseinsub
  3. 54'Kylian Mbappégoalassist Ousmane Dembélé
  4. 60'Youssef Amyn for Zaid Ismailsub
  5. 60'Rebin Sulaka for Zaid Tahseensub
  6. 66'Ousmane Dembélégoalassist Michael Olise
  7. 68'Rayan Cherki for Michael Olisesub
  8. 68'Désiré Doué for Ousmane Dembélésub
  9. 68'Aimar Sher for Amir Al-Ammarisub
  10. 69'Marko Farji for Ibrahim Bayeshsub
  11. 83'Malo Gusto for Jules Koundésub
  12. 83'Maghnes Akliouche for Bradley Barcolasub
  13. 90'Marcus Thuram for Kylian Mbappésub

source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 23 Jun 2026 15:45:20 GMT

Full time

Called it.

France 3-0 Iraq

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed France to win at 78%, about 8 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said France 3-0 Iraq: the France win, an outcome we had at 78 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved France +8 and Iraq -8.

On our player board, the squads moved France +36 (16 appearances) · Iraq -77 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +428 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 78/16/7 (home/draw/away).Favourite: France · 78%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked France v Iraq before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.