full time
Belgium1–1Egypt
Lumen Field, Seattle · 68,740 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Belgium to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1945+19 this year
1926 → 1945 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
9thheld on the latest list
8th → 9th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1814+36 this year
1778 → 1814 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
29thheld on the latest list
35th → 29th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Belgium by 131 points
Head to head
Egypt have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Belgium 1, drawn 0, Egypt 3 · goals 4-7
- 2022Egypt 2-1 Belgium· Friendly· neutral
- 2018Belgium 3-0 Egypt· Friendly
- 2005Egypt 4-0 Belgium· Friendly
- 1999Belgium 0-1 Egypt· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Belgium the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +161 edge into 54% / 24% / 22% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Belgium
1.6
expected goals
Egypt
1.0
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–011 in 100
- 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–09 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Belgium 37 in 100, Egypt 20 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Belgium win at home.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Belgium win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Belgium4-2-3-1
- 1Thibaut CourtoisG1997
- 15Thomas MeunierD1839
- 25Nathan NgoyD1838
- 4Brandon MecheleD1895
- 21Timothy CastagneD1894
- 24Amadou OnanaM1950
- 8Youri TielemansM2003
- 11Jérémy DokuM2058
- 7Kevin De BruyneM1863
- 10Leandro TrossardM2075
- 17Charles De KetelaereF1855
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Senne LammensG2058
- 13Mike PendersG1797
- 3Arthur TheateD1786
- 18Joaquin SeysD1886
- 16Koni De WinterD1823
- 5Maxim De CuyperD1892
- 22Alexis SaelemaekersF1825
- 6Axel WitselM1719
- 19Diego MoreiraF1778
- 14Dodi LukebakioF1928
- 23Nicolas RaskinM1673
- 20Hans VanakenM1888
- 26Matías Fernández-PardoF1812
- 9Romelu LukakuF1905
Egypt4-2-3-1
- 23Mostafa ShobeirG1581
- 3Mohamed HanyD1623
- 2Yasser IbrahimD1585
- 14Hamdy FathyD1616
- 13Ahmed FatouhD1610
- 17Mohanad LasheenM1579
- 19Marwan AttiaM1602
- 10Mohamed SalahM1979
- 8Emam AshourM1616
- 11Mostafa ZikoM1594
- 22Omar MarmoushF2029
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Mahdi SolimanG~1554 provisional
- 26Mohamed AlaaG~1553 provisional
- 1Mohamed El-ShenawyG1556
- 4Hossam AbdelmaguidD1576
- 15Karim HafezD1574
- 6Mohamed AbdelmonemD1633
- 5Rami RabiaD1588
- 24Tarek AlaaD1559
- 12Haissem HassanF1579
- 20Ibrahim AdelF1581
- 21Mahmoud SaberM1584
- 7Mahmoud TrézéguetF1592
- 18Nabil DongaM1548
- 25ZizoF~1565 provisional
- 9Hamza AbdelkarimF1516
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 17:58:54 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 19'E. Ashourgoalassist M. Salah
- 56'N. Raskin for T. Castagnesub
- 56'M. De Cuyper for A. Onanasub
- 66'R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaeresub
- 66'M. Hanygoal (o.g.)
- 71'R. Rabia for E. Ashoursub
- 76'Zizo for M. Zikosub
- 76'H. Abdelkarim for M. Salahsub
- 86'M. Fernandez-Pardo for J. Dokusub
- 86'H. Vanaken for K. De Bruynesub
- 88'I. Adel for H. Fathysub
- 88'K. Hafez for A. Fatouhsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 21:20:52 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Belgium 1-1 Egypt
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Belgium to win at 54%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Belgium 1-1 Egypt: the draw, an outcome we had at 24 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Belgium win at home.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Belgium -13 and Egypt +13.
On our player board, the squads moved Belgium -39 (16 appearances) · Egypt +73 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +161 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 54/24/22 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Belgium · 54%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Belgium v Egypt before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.