full time
Tunisia1–3Netherlands
Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City · 76,416 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Netherlands to win
sealed Tue 23 Jun · 19:53 UTC · 21:53 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Tue, 23 Jun 2026 19:53:15 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1748+19 this year
1729 → 1748 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
45thdown 1 place on the latest list
41st → 45th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2023-3 this year
2026 → 2023 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
8thdown 1 place on the latest list
7th → 8th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Netherlands by 275 points
Head to head
Netherlands have had the better of this fixture.
3 prior meetings · Tunisia 0, drawn 2, Netherlands 1 · goals 3-7
- 2009Tunisia 1-1 Netherlands· Friendly
- 1994Tunisia 2-2 Netherlands· Friendly
- 1978Tunisia 0-4 Netherlands· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Netherlands the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -368 edge into 9% / 18% / 73% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Tunisia
0.7
expected goals
Netherlands
1.9
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–214 in 100
- 0–114 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–29 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Tunisia 15 in 100, Netherlands 51 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Netherlands win on the road.✓ right
- Netherlands win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Netherlands keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Tunisia4-2-3-1
- 16A. DahmenG1531
- 20Y. ValeryD1538
- 3M. TalbiD1692
- 2A. AbdiD1592
- 21A. Ben HmidaD1561
- 17E. SkhiriM1649
- 13R. KhediraM1600
- 25A. Ben SlimaneM1572
- 10H. MejbriM1675
- 11Ismaël GharbiM1643
- 9H. MastouriF1596
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22S. Ben HsanG~1573 provisional
- 6D. BronnD1565
- 12M. Ben OuanesM1551
- 19F. ChaouatF1555
- 4O. RekikD1537
- 7E. AchouriM1632
- 26S. TounektiF1567
- 15H. MahmoudM1566
- 1C. AbdelmouhibG1507
- 8E. SaadF1532
- 24R. ChikhaouiD~1549 provisional
- 14K. AyariF1558
- 18R. ElloumiF1535
Netherlands4-3-3
- 1B. VerbruggenG1935
- 22D. DumfriesD2012
- 6J. van HeckeD1958
- 4V. van DijkD1965
- 5N. AkéD2024
- 8R. GravenberchM1978
- 21F. de JongM2036
- 14T. ReijndersM2071
- 18D. MalenF2046
- 19B. BrobbeyF1898
- 11C. GakpoF1978
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 25J. HatoD1874
- 13R. RoefsG1922
- 15M. van de VenD1827
- 26Q. TimberM1813
- 12M. WiefferM1935
- 24C. SummervilleF1905
- 17N. LangF1806
- 2L. GeertruidaDunrated
- 7J. KluivertF1944
- 16G. TilM1904
- 20T. KoopmeinersM1863
- 9W. WeghorstF1691
- 23M. FlekkenG1943
- 10M. DepayF1884
- 3M. de RoonM1831
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 22:06:16 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 3'Ellyes Skhirigoal (o.g.)
- 7'Brian Brobbeygoalassist Virgil van Dijk
- 54'Hazem Mastourigoalassist Hannibal Mejbri
- 62'Jan Paul van Heckegoalassist Tijjani Reijnders
- 67'Mohamed Hadj Mahmoud for Rani Khedirasub
- 68'Elias Achouri for Anis Ben Slimanesub
- 68'Mortadha Ben Ouanes for Mohamed Amine Ben Hamidasub
- 72'Teun Koopmeiners for Frenkie de Jongsub
- 72'Justin Kluivert for Tijjani Reijnderssub
- 72'Crysencio Summerville for Donyell Malensub
- 75'Firas Chaouat for Ismael Gharbisub
- 77'Memphis Depay for Brian Brobbeysub
- 84'Noa Lang for Cody Gakposub
- 90'Sebastian Tounekti for Hazem Mastourisub
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 01:23:06 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Netherlands to win at 73%, about 7 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Tunisia 1-3 Netherlands: the Netherlands win, an outcome we had at 73 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Netherlands keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Tunisia -10 and Netherlands +10.
On our player board, the squads moved Tunisia -34 (16 appearances) · Netherlands +41 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -368 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 9/18/73 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Netherlands · 73%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Tunisia v Netherlands before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.