full time
Sweden5–1Tunisia
Estadio BBVA, Monterrey · 53,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Sweden to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1772-10 this year
1782 → 1772 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
38thheld on the latest list
43rd → 38th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1748+19 this year
1729 → 1748 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
45thdown 1 place on the latest list
41st → 45th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Sweden by 24 points
Head to head
Sweden have had the better of this fixture.
5 prior meetings · Sweden 3, drawn 1, Tunisia 1 · goals 8-3
- 2026Sweden 5-1 Tunisia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2003Tunisia 1-0 Sweden· Friendly
- 1999Tunisia 0-1 Sweden· Friendly
- 1992Tunisia 0-1 Sweden· Friendly
- 1976Tunisia 1-1 Sweden· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Sweden the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +27 edge into 40% / 26% / 34% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Sweden
1.3
expected goals
Tunisia
1.3
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 1–09 in 100
- 0–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–18 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Sweden 29 in 100, Tunisia 26 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Sweden win at home.✓ right
- No blowout: Sweden win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Sweden3-4-1-2
- 23Kristoffer NordfeldtG1568
- 2Gustaf LagerbielkeD1881
- 4Isak HienD1790
- 3Victor LindelöfD1895
- 21Alexander BernhardssonM1572
- 16Jesper KarlströmM1718
- 18Yasin AyariM1912
- 5Gabriel GudmundssonM1873
- 10Benjamin NygrenF1613
- 17Viktor GyökeresF2078
- 9Alexander IsakF1973
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG1604
- 12Viktor JohanssonG1564
- 14Hjalmar EkdalD1669
- 20Eric SmithD1538
- 15Carl StarfeltD1791
- 8Daniel SvenssonD1834
- 6Herman JohanssonM1619
- 24Elliot StroudM1604
- 7Lucas BergvallM1824
- 13Ken SemaM1573
- 19Mattias SvanbergM1647
- 22Besfort ZeneliM1757
- 26Taha Abdi AliM1574
- 11Anthony ElangaF1880
- 25Gustaf NilssonF1786
Tunisia4-2-3-1
- 1Abdelmouhib ChamakhG1507
- 20Yan ValeryD1538
- 3Montassar TalbiD1692
- 4Omar RekikD1537
- 21Amine Ben HmidaD1561
- 13Rani KhediraM1600
- 17Ellyes SkhiriM1649
- 25Anis Ben SlimaneM1572
- 10Hannibal MejbriM1675
- 2Ali AbdiM1592
- 8Elias SaadF1532
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Aymen DahmenG1531
- 22Sabri Ben HessenG~1573 provisional
- 5Adem ArousD1562
- 6Dylan BronnD1565
- 23Moataz NefatiD~1549 provisional
- 24Raed ChikhaouiD~1549 provisional
- 12Mortadha Ben OuanesM1551
- 11Ismael GharbiF1643
- 15Mohamed Belhadj MahmoudM1566
- 26Sebastian TounektiF1567
- 7Elias AchouriM1632
- 14Khalil AyariF1558
- 18Rayan ElloumiF1535
- 9Hazem MastouriF1596
- 19Firas ChaouatF1555
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 01:43:02 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 7'Y. Ayarigoal
- 30'A. Isakgoalassist V. Gyokeres
- 43'O. Rekikgoalassist H. Mejbri
- 59'V. Gyokeresgoalassist A. Isak
- 65'E. Stroud for G. Gudmundssonsub
- 65'L. Bergvall for B. Nygrensub
- 72'S. Tounekti for E. Saadsub
- 72'M. Belhadj for Y. Valerysub
- 72'E. Achouri for E. Skhirisub
- 83'I. Gharbi for R. Khedirasub
- 84'F. Chaouat for A. Slimanesub
- 84'M. Svanberg for J. Karlstromsub
- 84'M. Svanberggoalassist A. Isak
- 90+1'A. Elanga for A. Isaksub
- 90+1'D. Svensson for A. Bernhardssonsub
- 90+6'Y. Ayarigoalassist L. Bergvall
source: api-football.com · fetched Mon, 15 Jun 2026 09:56:14 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Sweden to win at 40%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Sweden 5-1 Tunisia: the Sweden win, an outcome we had at 40 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- No blowout: Sweden win by a single goal at most, if at all.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Sweden +36 and Tunisia -36.
On our player board, the squads moved Sweden +193 (16 appearances) · Tunisia -219 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +27 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 40/26/34 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Sweden · 40%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Sweden v Tunisia before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.