Skip to content
Fri 26 Jun · 02:00 UTC · 04:00 CEST · Group D

full time

Paraguay0–0Australia

1916+40rating1900+5041stdown 1fifa27th
D. Gómez1876talismanC. Volpato1711

Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Honours even

home 36%draw 26% ✓away 38%

sealed Thu 25 Jun · 08:57 UTC · 10:57 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 08:57:48 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Paraguay

ProofXI rating

1916+40 this year

1876 → 1916 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

41stdown 1 place on the latest list

39th → 41st · 6 lists

Australia

ProofXI rating

1900+50 this year

1850 → 1900 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

27thheld on the latest list

26th → 27th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Paraguay by 16 points

Head to head

Australia have had the better of this fixture.

6 prior meetings · Paraguay 0, drawn 4, Australia 2 · goals 2-4

  1. 2026Paraguay 0-0 Australia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  2. 2010Australia 1-0 Paraguay· Friendly
  3. 2006Australia 1-1 Paraguay· Friendly
  4. 2000Australia 2-1 Paraguay· Friendly
  5. 2000Australia 0-0 Paraguay· Friendly

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Australia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Paraguay rating edge-12
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-12

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -12 edge into 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Paraguay

1.3

expected goals

Australia

1.3

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 0–19 in 100
  • 1–09 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–28 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Paraguay 27 in 100, Australia 28 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Paraguay and Australia share the points.✓ right
  • A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Paraguay5-4-1

  1. 12O. GillG1580
  2. 4J. CáceresD1624
  3. 2G. VelázquezD1648
  4. 15G. GómezD1869
  5. 3O. AldereteD1842
  6. 26A. MaidanaD1551
  7. 8D. GómezM1876
  8. 14A. CubasM1656
  9. 23M. GalarzaM1584
  10. 19J. EncisoM1781
  11. 21G. ÁvalosF1539

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Australia3-4-3

  1. 18P. BeachG1587
  2. 3A. CircatiD1685
  3. 19H. SouttarD1609
  4. 25L. HerringtonD1575
  5. 16A. BehichM1537
  6. 13A. O'NeillM1611
  7. 22J. IrvineM1569
  8. 5J. BosM1679
  9. 8C. MetcalfeM1613
  10. 17N. IrankundaF1541
  11. 20C. VolpatoM1711

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 01:31:11 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 46'Mauricio for A. Maidanasub
  2. 58'A. Hrustic for C. Volpatosub
  3. 67'A. Arce for G. Avalossub
  4. 84'J. Canale for O. Alderetesub
  5. 84'P. Okon-Engstler for J. Irvinesub
  6. 84'T. Yengi for N. Irankundasub
  7. 90+2'D. Bobadilla for D. Gomezsub
  8. 90+2'J. Alonso for M. Galarzasub

source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 26 Jun 2026 06:50:09 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Paraguay 0-0 Australia

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
2/3

The debrief

We sealed Honours even at 38%, about 4 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Paraguay 0-0 Australia: the draw, an outcome we had at 26 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Paraguay +1 and Australia -1.

On our player board, the squads moved Paraguay -20 (16 appearances) · Australia +14 (14 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -12 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 36/26/38 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 38%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Paraguay v Australia before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.