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Wed 24 Jun · 22:00 UTC · Thu 00:00 CEST · Group C

full time

Scotland0–3Brazil

1819+34rating2064-342ndup 1fifa6th
J. McGinn1956talismanGabriel Martinelli2149

Hard Rock Stadium, Miami · 64,767 seats

Called it. As forecast.

Brazil to win

home 16%draw 22%away 62% ✓

sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 22 Jun 2026 20:46:42 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

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The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Scotland

ProofXI rating

1819+34 this year

1785 → 1819 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

42ndup 1 place on the latest list

36th → 42nd · 6 lists

Brazil

ProofXI rating

2064-3 this year

2067 → 2064 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

6thheld on the latest list

5th → 6th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Brazil by 245 points

Head to head

Brazil have had the better of this fixture.

10 prior meetings · Scotland 0, drawn 2, Brazil 8 · goals 3-16

  1. 2011Brazil 2-0 Scotland· Friendly· neutral
  2. 1998Brazil 2-1 Scotland· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  3. 1990Brazil 1-0 Scotland· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  4. 1987Scotland 0-2 Brazil· Rous Cup
  5. 1982Brazil 4-1 Scotland· FIFA World Cup· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Brazil the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Scotland rating edge-237
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge-237

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -237 edge into 16% / 22% / 62% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Scotland

0.9

expected goals

Brazil

1.7

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 0–112 in 100
  • 1–112 in 100
  • 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 1–210 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Scotland 18 in 100, Brazil 42 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Brazil win on the road.✓ right
  • Brazil win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
  • Brazil keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Scotland4-2-3-1

  1. 1Angus GunnG1826
  2. 22Nathan PattersonD1810
  3. 13Jack HendryD1591
  4. 26Scott McKennaD1568
  5. 3Andy RobertsonD1934
  6. 19Lewis FergusonM1753
  7. 23Kenny McLeanM1575
  8. 17Ben Gannon-DoakM1893
  9. 4Scott McTominayM1846
  10. 7John McGinnM1956
  11. 20Lawrence ShanklandF1583

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Brazil4-3-3

  1. 1AlissonG1986
  2. 13DaniloD1919
  3. 4MarquinhosD2085
  4. 3Gabriel MagalhãesD2142
  5. 16Douglas SantosD1688
  6. 8Bruno GuimarãesM2004
  7. 5CasemiroM2066
  8. 20Lucas PaquetáM1975
  9. 26RayanF2025
  10. 9Matheus CunhaF2084
  11. 7Vinícius JúniorF2092

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:20 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 7'Vinicius Juniorgoalassist Rayan
  2. 45+3'Vinicius Juniorgoalassist Bruno Guimaraes
  3. 46'K. Tierney for A. Robertsonsub
  4. 60'M. Cunhagoalassist Bruno Guimaraes
  5. 65'Fabinho for Casemirosub
  6. 66'G. Martinelli for Lucas Paquetasub
  7. 76'Neymar for M. Cunhasub
  8. 82'A. Ralston for N. Pattersonsub
  9. 82'R. Christie for B. Gannon-Doaksub
  10. 82'Alex Sandro for Douglas Santossub
  11. 82'Endrick for Rayansub
  12. 90+1'C. Adams for L. Shanklandsub
  13. 90+1'F. Curtis for J. McGinnsub

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 25 Jun 2026 00:06:01 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Scotland 0-3 Brazil

Verdict
right for right reasons
Claims right
3/3

The debrief

We sealed Brazil to win at 62%, about 6 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said Scotland 0-3 Brazil: the Brazil win, an outcome we had at 62 in 100.

The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Scotland -21 and Brazil +21.

On our player board, the squads moved Scotland -99 (16 appearances) · Brazil +88 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -237 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 16/22/62 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Brazil · 62%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Scotland v Brazil before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.