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Lucas Paquetá

Brazil · the desk

Midfield, Brazil

Club football at CR Flamengo.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

  • age

    28

    sourced with the squad

  • position

    Midfield

    Brazil

  • club

    CR Flamengo

    football-data.org

  • club tier

    1820

    our estimate · league-based

  • our board

    #105

    of 1424 rated players

  • folded so far

    3368′

    48 appearances

  • transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

    32.00

    99th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Chances created for Brazil, on the record.

  • goals

    0

  • assists

    1

  • caps

    21

  • minutes

    1278′

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad
Brazil · Midfieldfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club
CR Flamengofootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board

1959 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1975 full roster Elo (+16 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Brazil's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point
1914
age curve at 28 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls
-7
transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons
+51
quality rating · club, age + measured output
1959
form: national-team results, 48 appearances3368 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI
+16
full roster Elo · with results
1975

Rating trend

-93 over 49 updates

Seeded from his team’s rating, then moved by the matches he actually played. A shadow signal, it never touches a live call.

Where the +51 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured
32.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers
his rank
99th percentile of qualified peers
scored from
the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can
the arithmetic
46 pts/σ × z(98.7th) = 46 × 2.22 × 0.5 (position weight) = +51

Where the +16 was earned

The earned line, opened up by competition. World Cup finals count 1.5×, qualifiers and cups 1×, friendlies and club football half, so a tournament night moves him most.

World Cup finals8 apps · 551
+36
internationals, qualifiers & cups11 apps · 633
-22
international friendlies2 apps · 94
+1
club football27 apps · 2090
+0

His latest nights

  • 2026-06-29World Cup finals · 45▲ +3
  • 2026-06-24World Cup finals · 66▲ +9
  • 2026-06-20World Cup finals · 64▲ +5
  • 2026-06-13World Cup finals · 61▼ −1
  • 2026-06-06international friendlies · 45 · team result only▲ +0

Each night’s move blends his team’s result with his own match stats, saves for keepers, tackles and duels for defenders, creation for midfielders, finishing up front. “Team result only” marks games where the feed carried no player stats.

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-29. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

At this World Cup

What the tournament has done to his rating since the first whistle on 11 Jun, and the matches behind it. Each night’s move blends his team’s result with his own performance, shrunk for sample size, so a strong game nudges the number rather than spiking it.

▲ +16

4 appearances · 236′ · 4 graded by his own stats

The matches behind it

  • 06-29won by 1 · 45′ · his stats graded▲ +3
  • 06-24won by 3 · 66′ · his stats graded▲ +9
  • 06-20won by 3 · 64′ · his stats graded▲ +5
  • 06-13drew · 61′ · his stats graded▼ −1

The same movement shown beside his name on the board, opened up. “Team result only” marks nights the feed carried no player stats. A forward-only shadow signal; it never touches a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

  • standing

    #105 of 1424 on our board, top 10% of everyone we rate.

  • best night

    His best night in our ledger: +14 in one sitting, World Cup finals, 2022-12-05.

  • vs his seed

    The folded nights have added +16 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€9.7m€38m €19m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose
reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill
€8m
club tier 1820the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays
×3.00
ageage 28, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year
×0.82
midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts
×0.90
individual skillmeasured 65th percentile of peers
×1.14
our estimate
€19m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €43m (2022-08). Our estimate today: ≈ €19m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: richly priced , we rate him 56% below his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

  • 2026-01-26West Ham Flamengoundisclosed
  • 2026-01-25West Ham Flamengo RJundisclosed
  • 2022-08-29Lyon West Ham€43m
  • 2020-09-30AC Milan Lyon€20m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Brazil’s record

  • v Japan2–1Called it
  • at Scotland0–3Called it
  • v Haiti3–0Called it
  • v Morocco1–1Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Brazil. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.

Squad · sourced