full time
United States4–1Paraguay
SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles · 70,240 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Paraguay to win
sealed Thu 11 Jun · 18:54 UTC · 20:54 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 11 Jun 2026 18:54:02 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1840+33 this year
1807 → 1840 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
17thdown 1 place on the latest list
14th → 17th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1900-1 this year
1901 → 1900 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
41stdown 1 place on the latest list
39th → 41st · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Paraguay by 60 points
Head to head
United States have had the better of this fixture.
10 prior meetings · United States 6, drawn 2, Paraguay 2 · goals 16-8
- 2026United States 4-1 Paraguay· FIFA World Cup
- 2025United States 2-1 Paraguay· Friendly
- 2018United States 1-0 Paraguay· Friendly
- 2016United States 1-0 Paraguay· Copa América
- 2011United States 0-1 Paraguay· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Paraguay the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -92 edge into 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
United States
1.1
expected goals
Paraguay
1.5
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–110 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: United States 23 in 100, Paraguay 32 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Paraguay win on the road.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Paraguay win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
USA4-2-3-1
- 24Matthew FreeseG~1613 provisional
- 16Alexander FreemanD~1859 provisional
- 3Chris RichardsD1971
- 13Tim ReamD1580
- 5Antonee RobinsonD2001
- 4Tyler AdamsM1997
- 17Malik TillmanM~1953 provisional
- 2Sergiño DestM1996
- 8Weston McKennieM1898
- 10Christian PulišićM1888
- 20Folarin BalogunF1867
8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 14Sebastian BerhalterM~1733 provisional
- 21Tim WeahF1729
- 9Ricardo PepiF1891
- 7Giovanni ReynaM1696
- 1Matt TurnerG1607
- 25Chris BradyG~1609 provisional
- 6Auston TrustyD~1633 provisional
- 12Miles RobinsonD~1594 provisional
- 22Mark McKenzieD~1717 provisional
- 23Joe ScallyD~1701 provisional
- 18Maximilian ArfstenM~1654 provisional
- 15Cristian RoldánM~1633 provisional
- 11Brenden AaronsonM1816
- 26Alex ZendejasF~1669 provisional
- 19Haji WrightF~1756 provisional
Paraguay4-4-2
- 12Orlando GillG~1579 provisional
- 4Juan CáceresD~1604 provisional
- 15Gustavo GómezD~1854 provisional
- 3Omar AldereteD~1807 provisional
- 6Junior AlonsoD~1685 provisional
- 8Diego GómezM1843
- 14Andrés CubasM~1612 provisional
- 16Damián BobadillaM~1740 provisional
- 10Miguel AlmirónM1543
- 9Antonio SanabriaF~1580 provisional
- 19Julio EncisoF1739
3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 11MauricioM~1873 provisional
- 18Alex ArceF~1648 provisional
- 2Gustavo VelázquezD~1653 provisional
- 7Ramón SosaF~1852 provisional
- 17Alejandro RomeroM~1558 provisional
- 22Gastón OlveiraG~1566 provisional
- 1Roberto FernándezG~1653 provisional
- 5Fabián BalbuenaD~1706 provisional
- 26Alexandro MaidanaD~1550 provisional
- 13José CanaleD~1711 provisional
- 20Braian OjedaM~1562 provisional
- 24Gustavo CaballeroF~1559 provisional
- 23Matías GalarzaM~1573 provisional
- 21Gabriel ÁvalosF~1541 provisional
- 25Isidro PittaF~1751 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 13 Jun 2026 05:09:42 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
United States 4-1 Paraguay
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Paraguay to win at 47%, about , before kickoff. Full time said United States 4-1 Paraguay: the United States win, an outcome we had at 28 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Paraguay win on the road.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved United States +51 and Paraguay -51.
On our player board, the squads moved United States +300 (15 appearances) · Paraguay -268 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -92 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 28/25/47 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Paraguay · 47%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked United States v Paraguay before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.