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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Sat 20 Jun · 03:00 UTC · 05:00 CEST · Group D

full time

Turkey0–1Paraguay

1918+32rating1900-122ndfifa41stdown 1

Levi's Stadium, San Francisco · 68,500 seats

Missed it. It stays up.

Turkey to win

home 42%draw 26%away 33% ✓

sealed Thu 18 Jun · 20:15 UTC · 22:15 CEST · nothing deleted

Missed

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:15:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Turkey

ProofXI rating

1918+32 this year

1886 → 1918 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

22ndheld on the latest list

25th → 22nd · 6 lists

Paraguay

ProofXI rating

1900-1 this year

1901 → 1900 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

41stdown 1 place on the latest list

39th → 41st · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Turkey by 18 points

Head to head

They have met once before, and Paraguay took it.

1 prior meeting · Turkey 0, drawn 0, Paraguay 1 · goals 0-1

  1. 2026Turkey 0-1 Paraguay· FIFA World Cup· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Turkey the stronger side, and seal the call at about 4 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Turkey rating edge+43
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+43

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +43 edge into 42% / 26% / 33% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Turkey

1.4

expected goals

Paraguay

1.2

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–010 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–18 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Turkey 30 in 100, Paraguay 25 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Turkey win at home.✗ wrong
  • No blowout: Turkey win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Turkey4-2-3-1

  1. 23Uğurcan ÇakırG1565
  2. 18Mert MüldürD1606
  3. 3Merih DemiralD~1581 provisional
  4. 14Abdülkerim BardakcıD1566
  5. 20Ferdi KadıoğluD1490
  6. 16İsmail YüksekM1594
  7. 10Hakan ÇalhanoğluM1957
  8. 19Yunus AkgünM1764
  9. 8Arda GülerM2018
  10. 11Kenan YıldızM1557
  11. 7Kerem AktürkoğluF1602

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Paraguay4-4-2

  1. 12Orlando GillG~1579 provisional
  2. 4Juan CáceresD~1604 provisional
  3. 15Gustavo GómezD~1854 provisional
  4. 3Omar AldereteD~1807 provisional
  5. 6Junior AlonsoD~1685 provisional
  6. 8Diego GómezM1843
  7. 14Andrés CubasM~1612 provisional
  8. 23Matías GalarzaM~1573 provisional
  9. 10Miguel AlmirónM1543
  10. 25Isidro PittaF~1751 provisional
  11. 19Julio EncisoF1739

3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 02:30:53 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 2'M. Galarzagoalassist J. Enciso
  2. 46'D. Bobadilla for I. Pittasub
  3. 46'B. Yilmaz for K. Akturkoglusub
  4. 60'C. Uzun for I. Yukseksub
  5. 60'D. Gul for Y. Akgunsub
  6. 67'G. Velazquez for D. Gomezsub
  7. 70'E. Elmali for F. Kadioglusub
  8. 81'A. Maidana for J. Caceressub
  9. 86'O. Kokcu for A. Bardakcisub
  10. 90+2'G. Avalos for J. Encisosub
  11. 90+2'J. Canale for M. Galarzasub

source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 15:02:22 GMT

Full time

Missed it.

Turkey 0-1 Paraguay

Verdict
wrong and wrong
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Turkey to win at 42%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Turkey 0-1 Paraguay: the Paraguay win, an outcome we had at 33 in 100.

The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • Turkey win at home.
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Turkey -28 and Paraguay +28.

On our player board, the squads moved Turkey -134 (16 appearances) · Paraguay +173 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +43 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 42/26/33 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Turkey · 42%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Turkey v Paraguay before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.