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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Thu 9 Jul · 20:00 UTC · 22:00 CEST

full time

France2–0Morocco

2137+27rating2027+1183rddown 2fifa7thup 1

Called it. As forecast.

France to win

home 53% ✓draw 24%away 23%

sealed Wed 8 Jul · 08:24 UTC · 10:24 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Wed, 08 Jul 2026 08:24:41 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

France

ProofXI rating

2137+27 this year

2110 → 2137 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

3rddown 2 places on the latest list

3rd → 3rd · 6 lists

Morocco

ProofXI rating

2027+118 this year

1909 → 2027 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

7thup 1 place on the latest list

11th → 7th · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: France by 110 points

Head to head

France have had the better of this fixture.

6 prior meetings · France 4, drawn 2, Morocco 0 · goals 14-6

  1. 2022France 2-0 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral
  2. 2007France 2-2 Morocco· Friendly
  3. 2000Morocco 1-5 France· King Hassan II Tournament
  4. 1999France 1-0 Morocco· Friendly
  5. 1998Morocco 2-2 France· King Hassan II Tournament

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make France the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

France rating edge+148
Home advantage0 (neutral venue)
Net edge+148

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +148 edge into 53% / 24% / 23% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

France

1.6

expected goals

Morocco

1.0

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–011 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 2–09 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: France 36 in 100, Morocco 21 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • France win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: France win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

France4-2-3-1

  1. 16Mike MaignanG1956
  2. 5Jules KoundéD2171
  3. 4Dayot UpamecanoD2258
  4. 17William SalibaD2328
  5. 3Lucas DigneD2016
  6. 6Manu KonéM1934
  7. 14Adrien RabiotM1940
  8. 7Ousmane DembéléM2308
  9. 11Michael OliseM2518
  10. 20Désiré DouéM2252
  11. 10Kylian MbappéF2320

11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Morocco4-2-3-1

  1. 1Yassine BounouG1773
  2. 2Achraf HakimiD2090
  3. 14Issa DiopD~1887 provisional
  4. 3Noussair MazraouiD2005
  5. 26Anass Salah-EddineD1845
  6. 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1866
  7. 24Neil El AynaouiM1903
  8. 7Chemsdine TalbiM1831
  9. 8Azzedine OunahiM1857
  10. 23Bilal El KhannoussM1911
  11. 10Brahim DíazF2052

10 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 09 Jul 2026 19:22:14 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 60'K. Mbappegoalassist D. Doue
  2. 62'S. Amrabat for A. Bouaddisub
  3. 62'S. Rahimi for B. El Khannousssub
  4. 66'O. Dembelegoalassist K. Mbappe
  5. 71'W. Zaire-Emery for M. Konesub
  6. 74'G. Yassine for B. Diazsub
  7. 74'Z. El Ouahdi for A. Salah-Eddinesub
  8. 77'J. Mateta for K. Mbappesub
  9. 77'B. Barcola for D. Douesub
  10. 85'A. Sbai for C. Talbisub
  11. 87'M. Gusto for J. Koundesub

source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 09 Jul 2026 22:01:15 GMT

Full time

Called it.

France 2-0 Morocco

Verdict
right but lucky
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed France to win at 53%, about , before kickoff. Full time said France 2-0 Morocco: the France win, an outcome we had at 53 in 100.

The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • No blowout: France win by a single goal at most, if at all.
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved France +27 and Morocco -27.

On our player board, the squads moved France +109 (15 appearances) · Morocco -69 (15 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +148 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 53/24/23 (home/draw/away).Favourite: France · 53%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked France v Morocco before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.