full time
Colombia1–0Ghana
Called it. As forecast.
Colombia to win
sealed Thu 2 Jul · 19:14 UTC · 21:14 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:14:36 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2085+58 this year
2027 → 2085 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1681+84 this year
1597 → 1681 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
73rdup 1 place on the latest list
72nd → 73rd · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 404 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Colombia took it.
1 prior meeting · Colombia 1, drawn 0, Ghana 0 · goals 1-0
- 2026Colombia 1-0 Ghana· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 8 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +400 edge into 76% / 17% / 8% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Colombia
2.0
expected goals
Ghana
0.6
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 2–014 in 100
- 1–014 in 100
- 1–110 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 3–09 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Colombia 53 in 100, Ghana 14 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win at home.✓ right
- Colombia win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Colombia keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Colombia4-3-3
- 12Camilo VargasG~1618 provisional
- 2Daniel MuñozD2019
- 23Davinson SánchezD1824
- 3Jhon LucumíD1796
- 17Johan MojicaD~1712 provisional
- 11Jhon AriasM~1937 provisional
- 16Jefferson LermaM1784
- 14Gustavo PuertaM~1694 provisional
- 10James RodríguezF~1592 provisional
- 9Jhon CórdobaF~1605 provisional
- 7Luis DíazF2339
5 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 24Álvaro MonteroG~1609 provisional
- 4Santiago AriasD~1632 provisional
- 13Yerry MinaD1755
- 18Willer DittaD~1859 provisional
- 22Deiver MachadoD~1649 provisional
- 5Kevin CastañoM~1848 provisional
- 6Richard RíosM1923
- 8Jorge CarrascalM~1940 provisional
- 15Juan PortillaM~1865 provisional
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1803
- 21Jaminton CampazM1773
- 26Andrés GómezF~1747 provisional
- 19Cucho HernándezF1918
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2124
Ghana4-1-4-1
- 1Lawrence Ati ZigiG~1549 provisional
- 26Marvin SenayaD~1588 provisional
- 23Derrick LuckassenD~1586 provisional
- 18Jerome OpokuD~1587 provisional
- 14Gideon MensahD~1584 provisional
- 5Thomas ParteyM1833
- 19Iñaki WilliamsM1689
- 3Caleb YirenkyiM~1566 provisional
- 8Kwasi SiboM~1550 provisional
- 11Antoine SemenyoM2103
- 9Jordan AyewF1470
4 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Joseph AnangG~1525 provisional
- 16Benjamin AsareG~1559 provisional
- 2Alidu SeiduD~1575 provisional
- 4Jonas Adjei AdjeteyD~1634 provisional
- 6Abdul MuminD~1729 provisional
- 17Rahman BabaD~1557 provisional
- 21Kojo Peprah OppongD~1593 provisional
- 15Elisha OwusuM~1516 provisional
- 7Abdul Fatawu IssahakuF1578
- 13Christopher BaahF~1646 provisional
- 20Augustine BoakyeM~1568 provisional
- 10Brandon Thomas-AsanteF~1663 provisional
- 22Kamaldeen SulemanaF1726
- 24Ernest NuamahF~1759 provisional
- 25Prince Kwabena AduF~1579 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 04 Jul 2026 01:32:07 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 8'L. Suarez for J. Cordobasub
- 13'A. Seidu for M. Senayasub
- 14'J. Ariasgoalassist L. Suarez
- 46'R. Rios for J. Rodriguezsub
- 62'I. Fatawu for I. Williamssub
- 62'E. Owusu for K. Sibosub
- 73'J. Quintero for J. Ariassub
- 79'E. Nuamah for J. Ayewsub
- 79'P. Adu for C. Yirenkyisub
- 90'J. Campaz for L. Diazsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 04 Jul 2026 11:36:48 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Colombia 1-0 Ghana
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 76%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Colombia 1-0 Ghana: the Colombia win, an outcome we had at 76 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia win comfortably, by two goals or more.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Colombia +5 and Ghana -5.
On our player board, the squads moved Colombia +100 (15 appearances) · Ghana -101 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +400 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 76/17/8 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 76%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Colombia v Ghana before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.