full time
Uzbekistan1–3Colombia
Estadio Azteca, Mexico City · 83,264 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Colombia to win
sealed Tue 16 Jun · 16:20 UTC · 18:20 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:20:55 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1732-98 this year
1830 → 1732 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
50thheld on the latest list
50th → 50th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2085+58 this year
2027 → 2085 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 353 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Colombia took it.
1 prior meeting · Uzbekistan 0, drawn 0, Colombia 1 · goals 1-3
- 2026Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -239 edge into 16% / 22% / 62% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Uzbekistan
0.9
expected goals
Colombia
1.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–112 in 100
- 1–112 in 100
- 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Uzbekistan 18 in 100, Colombia 42 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win on the road.✓ right
- Colombia win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Colombia keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Uzbekistan3-4-2-1
- 1Utkir YusupovG~1512 provisional
- 5Rustam AshurmatovD~1517 provisional
- 2Abdukodir KhusanovD1905
- 18Abdulla AbdullaevD~1553 provisional
- 24Bekhruz KarimovM~1502 provisional
- 6Akmal MozgovoyM~1528 provisional
- 7Otabek ShukurovM~1504 provisional
- 13Sherzod NasrullaevM~1495 provisional
- 22Abbosbek FayzullaevF~1558 provisional
- 11Oston UrunovF~1515 provisional
- 14Eldor ShomurodovF1633
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Abduvokhid NematovG~1460 provisional
- 16Botirali ErgashevG~1547 provisional
- 3Khozhiakbar AlizhonovD~1538 provisional
- 4Farrukh SayfievD~1531 provisional
- 15Umarbek EshmuradovD~1542 provisional
- 25Avazbek UlmasaliyevD~1553 provisional
- 26Jakhongir UrozovD~1513 provisional
- 8Jamshid IskandarovM~1533 provisional
- 9Odiljon KhamrobekovM~1508 provisional
- 10Ruslanbek JiyanovMunrated
- 17Dostonbek KhamdamovM~1522 provisional
- 19Azizjon GanievM~1513 provisional
- 23Sherzod EsanovM~1544 provisional
- 20Azizbek AmanovF~1549 provisional
- 21Igor SergeevF~1527 provisional
Colombia4-2-3-1
- 12Camilo VargasG~1618 provisional
- 2Daniel MuñozD2019
- 23Davinson SánchezD1824
- 3Jhon LucumíD1796
- 17Johan MojicaD~1712 provisional
- 16Jefferson LermaM1784
- 14Gustavo PuertaM~1694 provisional
- 11Jhon AriasM~1937 provisional
- 10James RodríguezM~1592 provisional
- 7Luis DíazM2339
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2124
6 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 24Álvaro MonteroG~1609 provisional
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 22Deiver MachadoD~1649 provisional
- 4Santiago AriasD~1632 provisional
- 18Willer DittaD~1859 provisional
- 13Yerry MinaD1755
- 5Kevin CastañoM~1848 provisional
- 6Richard RíosM1923
- 8Jorge CarrascalM~1940 provisional
- 15Juan PortillaM~1865 provisional
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1803
- 21Jaminton CampazM1773
- 26Andrés GómezF~1747 provisional
- 9Jhon CórdobaF~1605 provisional
- 19Cucho HernándezF1918
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 01:20:45 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 40'D. Munozgoalassist L. Diaz
- 46'D. Khamdamov for O. Urunovsub
- 46'F. Sayfiev for S. Nasrullaevsub
- 60'A. Fayzullaevgoal
- 65'L. Diazgoalassist G. Puerta
- 72'J. Campaz for J. Rodriguezsub
- 77'A. Amonov for A. Fayzullaevsub
- 77'J. Urozov for R. Ashurmatovsub
- 80'C. Hernandez for L. Suarezsub
- 80'R. Rios for G. Puertasub
- 90+3'A. Gomez for L. Diazsub
- 90+3'K. Castano for J. Ariassub
- 90+3'I. Sergeev for E. Shomurodovsub
- 90+9'J. Campazgoalassist C. Hernandez
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 05:14:31 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 62%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Uzbekistan 1-3 Colombia: the Colombia win, an outcome we had at 62 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Uzbekistan -15 and Colombia +15.
On our player board, the squads moved Uzbekistan -129 (14 appearances) · Colombia +107 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -239 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 16/22/62 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 62%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Uzbekistan v Colombia before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.