full time
Switzerland4–3Colombia
Missed it. It stays up.
Colombia to win
sealed Sun 5 Jul · 19:05 UTC · 21:05 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Sun, 05 Jul 2026 19:05:40 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2005+84 this year
1921 → 2005 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
19thheld on the latest list
17th → 19th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2085+58 this year
2027 → 2085 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
13thheld on the latest list
13th → 13th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Colombia by 80 points
Head to head
Colombia have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Switzerland 1, drawn 1, Colombia 2 · goals 6-9
- 2007Colombia 3-1 Switzerland· Friendly· neutral
- 1994Switzerland 0-2 Colombia· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 1991Colombia 2-3 Switzerland· Miami Cup· neutral
- 1985Colombia 2-2 Switzerland· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Colombia the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -71 edge into 30% / 26% / 45% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Switzerland
1.2
expected goals
Colombia
1.4
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–110 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Switzerland 24 in 100, Colombia 31 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Colombia win on the road.✗ wrong
- No blowout: Colombia win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Switzerland4-2-3-1
- 1Gregor KobelG2046
- 6Denis ZakariaD1799
- 4Nico ElvediD~1780 provisional
- 5Manuel AkanjiD1969
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD~1791 provisional
- 8Remo FreulerM1786
- 10Granit XhakaM2003
- 22Fabian RiederM1765
- 14Ardon JashariM1835
- 11Dan NdoyeM1886
- 7Breel EmboloF~1938 provisional
8 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Yvon MvogoG~1754 provisional
- 21Marvin KellerG~1552 provisional
- 18Eray CömertD~1789 provisional
- 24Aurèle AmendaD1738
- 2Miro MuheimD1697
- 3Silvan WidmerD1735
- 15Djibril SowM1668
- 16Christian FassnachtM~1554 provisional
- 17Rubén VargasM1762
- 19Noah OkaforF~1941 provisional
- 23Zeki AmdouniF1690
- 26Cédric IttenF1603
Colombia4-3-3
- 12Camilo VargasG~1618 provisional
- 2Daniel MuñozD2019
- 23Davinson SánchezD1824
- 3Jhon LucumíD1796
- 17Johan MojicaD~1712 provisional
- 14Gustavo PuertaM~1694 provisional
- 16Jefferson LermaM1784
- 11Jhon AriasM~1937 provisional
- 10James RodríguezF~1592 provisional
- 25Luis Javier SuárezF2124
- 7Luis DíazF2339
6 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1David OspinaG~1821 provisional
- 24Álvaro MonteroG~1609 provisional
- 4Santiago AriasD~1632 provisional
- 13Yerry MinaD1755
- 18Willer DittaD~1859 provisional
- 22Deiver MachadoD~1649 provisional
- 5Kevin CastañoM~1848 provisional
- 6Richard RíosM1923
- 8Jorge CarrascalM~1940 provisional
- 15Juan PortillaM~1865 provisional
- 20Juan Fernando QuinteroM1803
- 26Andrés GómezF~1747 provisional
- 21Jaminton CampazM1773
- 9Jhon CórdobaF~1605 provisional
- 19Cucho HernándezF1918
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 07 Jul 2026 19:22:13 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'D. Sow for A. Jasharisub
- 66'J. Quintero for J. Rodriguezsub
- 66'J. Campaz for J. Ariassub
- 71'M. Muheim for R. Rodriguezsub
- 82'C. Hernandez for L. Suarezsub
- 82'R. Rios for J. Lermasub
- 87'C. Itten for B. Embolosub
- 87'S. Widmer for D. Zakariasub
- 90+2'R. Vargas for D. Ndoyesub
- 103'Z. Amdouni for F. Riedersub
- 119'Y. Mina for J. Lucumisub
- 120+1'J. Quinterogoal (pen)
- 120+1'G. Xhakagoal (pen)
- 120+2'Z. Amdounigoal (pen)
- 120+3'J. Campazgoal (pen)
- 120+4'C. Ittengoal (pen)
- 120+5'L. Diazgoal (pen)
- 120+5'R. Vargasgoal (pen)
source: api-football.com · fetched Tue, 07 Jul 2026 23:08:22 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Switzerland 4-3 Colombia
- Verdict
- wrong but well reasoned
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Colombia to win at 45%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Switzerland 4-3 Colombia: the Switzerland win, an outcome we had at 30 in 100.
The call missed, but the reasoning mostly held. That is what a probability is, the chance we sealed for what happened is exactly how often this should hurt. It stays up. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Colombia win on the road.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Switzerland +36 and Colombia -36.
On our player board, the squads moved Switzerland -8 (17 appearances) · Colombia -8 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -71 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 30/26/45 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Colombia · 45%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Switzerland v Colombia before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.