full time
Canada6–0Qatar
BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Canada to win
sealed Tue 16 Jun · 16:20 UTC · 18:20 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Tue, 16 Jun 2026 16:20:55 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1840-37 this year
1877 → 1840 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
30thheld on the latest list
27th → 30th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1543-105 this year
1648 → 1543 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
56thdown 1 place on the latest list
54th → 56th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Canada by 297 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Canada took it.
1 prior meeting · Canada 1, drawn 0, Qatar 0 · goals 2-0
- 2022Canada 2-0 Qatar· Friendly· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Canada the stronger side, and seal the call at about 7 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +346 edge into 72% / 19% / 10% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Canada
1.9
expected goals
Qatar
0.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–013 in 100
- 2–013 in 100
- 1–111 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–19 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Canada 49 in 100, Qatar 15 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Canada win at home.✓ right
- Canada win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Canada keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Canada4-4-2
- 16Maxime CrépeauG~1532 provisional
- 2Alistair JohnstonD~1621 provisional
- 4Luc De FougerollesD~1511 provisional
- 13Derek CorneliusD~1602 provisional
- 22Richie LaryeaD~1599 provisional
- 17Tajon BuchananM1766
- 7Stephen EustaquioM1687
- 8Ismael KonéM~1599 provisional
- 20Ali AhmedM~1600 provisional
- 10Jonathan DavidF1848
- 9Cyle LarinF1743
4 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Dayne St. ClairG~1560 provisional
- 18Owen GoodmanG~1552 provisional
- 5Joel WatermanD~1601 provisional
- 19Alphonso DaviesD1976
- 15Moise BombitoD1631
- 23Niko SigurM~1590 provisional
- 6Mathieu ChoinièreM~1589 provisional
- 11Liam MillarF~1640 provisional
- 14Jacob ShaffelburgF~1602 provisional
- 21Jonathan OsorioM~1540 provisional
- 25Nathan-Dylan SalibaM~1608 provisional
- 12Tani OluwaseyiF~1780 provisional
- 24Promise DavidF1665
- 26Jayden NelsonFunrated
Qatar4-3-3
- 1Mahmud AbunadaG~1458 provisional
- 13Ayoub Al OuiD~1507 provisional
- 2Pedro MiguelD~1482 provisional
- 16Boualem KhoukhiD~1488 provisional
- 14Homam Al-AminD~1532 provisional
- 5Jassem Gaber AbdulsallamM~1500 provisional
- 23Assim MadiboM~1497 provisional
- 4Issa LayeM~1492 provisional
- 8Edmilson JuniorF~1586 provisional
- 15Yusuf AbdurisagF~1500 provisional
- 11Akram AfifF~1517 provisional
0 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 21Salah ZakariaG~1523 provisional
- 22Meshaal BarshamG~1532 provisional
- 3Lucas MendesD~1514 provisional
- 18Sultan Al-BrakeD~1509 provisional
- 25Al-Hashmi Al-HussainD~1517 provisional
- 6Abdelaziz HatemM~1494 provisional
- 12Karim BoudiafM~1466 provisional
- 17Ahmed Al-GanehiF~1521 provisional
- 20Ahmed FathiM~1463 provisional
- 19Almoez AliF~1533 provisional
- 26Mohamed Naceur AlmanaiM~1512 provisional
- 7Ahmed AlaaeldinF~1522 provisional
- 9Mohammed MuntariF~1510 provisional
- 10Hassan Al HaydosF~1515 provisional
- 24Tahsin Mohammed JamshidF~1470 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Thu, 18 Jun 2026 21:20:28 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 16'C. Laringoal
- 29'J. Davidgoal
- 40'S. Al Brake for Y. Abdurisagsub
- 45+3'J. Davidgoal
- 46'A. Fathi for Edmilson Juniorsub
- 46'M. Al Mannai for J. Gabersub
- 46'M. Bombito for D. Corneliussub
- 57'N. Saliba for I. Konesub
- 59'A. Al Hussain for A. Afifsub
- 64'N. Salibagoal
- 71'J. Shaffelburg for L. De Fougerollessub
- 71'T. Oluwaseyi for A. Ahmedsub
- 75'M. Al Mannaigoal (o.g.)
- 83'N. Sigur for T. Buchanansub
- 87'Lucas Mendes for A. Fathisub
- 90+2'J. Davidgoalassist N. Saliba
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 19 Jun 2026 00:22:37 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Canada 6-0 Qatar
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Canada to win at 72%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Canada 6-0 Qatar: the Canada win, an outcome we had at 72 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Canada +13 and Qatar -13.
On our player board, the squads moved Canada +313 (16 appearances) · Qatar -276 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +346 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 72/19/10 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Canada · 72%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Canada v Qatar before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.