full time
Canada0–3Morocco
Called it. As forecast.
Morocco to win
sealed Thu 2 Jul · 19:14 UTC · 21:14 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 02 Jul 2026 19:14:36 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1840-37 this year
1877 → 1840 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
30thheld on the latest list
27th → 30th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2027+118 this year
1909 → 2027 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
7thup 1 place on the latest list
11th → 7th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Morocco by 187 points
Head to head
Morocco have had the better of this fixture.
4 prior meetings · Canada 0, drawn 1, Morocco 3 · goals 4-10
- 2022Canada 1-2 Morocco· FIFA World Cup· neutral
- 2016Morocco 4-0 Canada· Friendly
- 1994Canada 1-1 Morocco· Friendly
- 1984Morocco 3-2 Canada· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Morocco the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -87 edge into 28% / 25% / 47% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Canada
1.1
expected goals
Morocco
1.5
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–110 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–08 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Canada 23 in 100, Morocco 32 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Morocco win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Morocco win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Canada4-4-2
- 16Maxime CrépeauG~1532 provisional
- 2Alistair JohnstonD~1621 provisional
- 4Luc De FougerollesD~1511 provisional
- 15Moise BombitoD1631
- 22Richie LaryeaD~1599 provisional
- 17Tajon BuchananM1766
- 23Niko SigurM~1590 provisional
- 7Stephen EustaquioM1687
- 20Ali AhmedM~1600 provisional
- 10Jonathan DavidF1848
- 12Tani OluwaseyiF~1780 provisional
4 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 18Owen GoodmanG~1552 provisional
- 1Dayne St. ClairG~1560 provisional
- 5Joel WatermanD~1601 provisional
- 19Alphonso DaviesD1976
- 3Alfie JonesD~1676 provisional
- 13Derek CorneliusD~1602 provisional
- 21Jonathan OsorioM~1540 provisional
- 6Mathieu ChoinièreM~1589 provisional
- 14Jacob ShaffelburgF~1602 provisional
- 25Nathan-Dylan SalibaM~1608 provisional
- 11Liam MillarF~1640 provisional
- 24Promise DavidF1665
- 9Cyle LarinF1743
- 26Jayden NelsonFunrated
Morocco4-2-3-1
- 1Yassine BounouG1773
- 2Achraf HakimiD2090
- 14Issa DiopD~1887 provisional
- 25Redouane HalhalD~1628 provisional
- 3Noussair MazraouiD2005
- 6Ayyoub BouaddiM1866
- 24Neil El AynaouiM1903
- 10Brahim DíazM2052
- 8Azzedine OunahiM1857
- 23Bilal El KhannoussM1911
- 11Ismael SaibariF1987
9 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Munir El KajouiG~1603 provisional
- 22Ahmed Reda TagnaoutiG~1599 provisional
- 26Anass Salah-EddineD1845
- 5Marwane SaadaneDunrated
- 13Zakaria El OuahdiD1672
- 19Youssef BelammariD~1619 provisional
- 18Chadi RiadD~1889 provisional
- 17Amine SbaiFunrated
- 4Sofyan AmrabatM1787
- 15Samir El MourabetM~1839 provisional
- 7Chemsdine TalbiF1831
- 16Gessime YassineF1750
- 20Ayoub El KaabiF~1752 provisional
- 9Soufiane RahimiF1677
- 21Ayoube Amaimouni EchghouyabF~1733 provisional
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 04 Jul 2026 16:21:29 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 22'S. Rahimi for I. Saibarisub
- 50'A. Ounahigoalassist A. Hakimi
- 63'S. Amrabat for A. Bouaddisub
- 63'C. Talbi for B. El Khannousssub
- 63'C. Larin for T. Oluwaseyisub
- 78'P. David for A. Ahmedsub
- 78'J. Shaffelburg for R. Laryeasub
- 82'A. Ounahigoalassist B. Diaz
- 87'M. Saadane for I. Diopsub
- 87'S. El Mourabet for A. Ounahisub
- 87'J. Nelson for T. Buchanansub
- 87'J. Osorio for N. Sigursub
- 90+8'S. Rahimigoalassist B. Diaz
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 04 Jul 2026 20:40:01 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Canada 0-3 Morocco
- Verdict
- right but lucky
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Morocco to win at 47%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Canada 0-3 Morocco: the Morocco win, an outcome we had at 47 in 100.
The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- No blowout: Morocco win by a single goal at most, if at all.
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Canada -45 and Morocco +45.
On our player board, the squads moved Canada -255 (15 appearances) · Morocco +201 (15 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -87 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 28/25/47 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Morocco · 47%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Canada v Morocco before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.