full time
Switzerland2–1Canada
BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Honours even
sealed Mon 22 Jun · 20:46 UTC · 22:46 CEST · nothing deleted
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2005+84 this year
1921 → 2005 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
19thheld on the latest list
17th → 19th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1840-37 this year
1877 → 1840 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
30thheld on the latest list
27th → 30th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Switzerland by 165 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Canada took it.
1 prior meeting · Switzerland 0, drawn 0, Canada 1 · goals 1-3
- 2002Switzerland 1-3 Canada· Friendly
source · international results feed
The scorecard
- Switzerland and Canada share the points.✗ wrong
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.✗ wrong
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Switzerland4-2-3-1
- 1Gregor KobelG2046
- 25Luca JaquezD~1841 provisional
- 4Nico ElvediD~1780 provisional
- 5Manuel AkanjiD1969
- 13Ricardo RodríguezD~1791 provisional
- 8Remo FreulerM1786
- 10Granit XhakaM2003
- 15Djibril SowM1668
- 9Johan ManzambiM~1812 provisional
- 17Rubén VargasM1762
- 7Breel EmboloF~1938 provisional
6 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 3Silvan WidmerD1735
- 20Michel AebischerM1604
- 11Dan NdoyeF1886
- 16Christian FassnachtM~1554 provisional
- 26Cédric IttenF1603
- 21Marvin KellerG~1552 provisional
- 12Yvon MvogoG~1754 provisional
- 18Eray CömertD~1789 provisional
- 24Aurèle AmendaD1738
- 6Denis ZakariaM1799
- 14Ardon JashariM1835
- 22Fabian RiederM1765
- 19Noah OkaforF~1941 provisional
- 23Zeki AmdouniF1690
Canada4-4-2
- 16Maxime CrépeauG~1532 provisional
- 2Alistair JohnstonD~1621 provisional
- 4Luc De FougerollesD~1511 provisional
- 13Derek CorneliusD~1602 provisional
- 22Richie LaryeaD~1599 provisional
- 17Tajon BuchananM1766
- 25Nathan-Dylan SalibaM~1608 provisional
- 6Mathieu ChoinièreM~1589 provisional
- 20Ali AhmedM~1600 provisional
- 10Jonathan DavidF1848
- 9Cyle LarinF1743
3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 7Stephen EustaquioM1687
- 11Liam MillarF~1640 provisional
- 12Tani OluwaseyiF~1780 provisional
- 24Promise DavidF1665
- 14Jacob ShaffelburgF~1602 provisional
- 1Dayne St. ClairG~1560 provisional
- 18Owen GoodmanG~1552 provisional
- 5Joel WatermanD~1601 provisional
- 23Niko SigurM~1590 provisional
- 15Moise BombitoD1631
- 19Alphonso DaviesD1976
- 21Jonathan OsorioM~1540 provisional
- 26Jayden NelsonFunrated
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:19 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'R. Vargasgoalassist J. Manzambi
- 57'J. Manzambigoalassist B. Embolo
- 58'S. Eustaquio for M. Choinieresub
- 58'L. Millar for A. Ahmedsub
- 58'T. Oluwaseyi for C. Larinsub
- 74'S. Widmer for L. Jaquezsub
- 74'M. Aebischer for D. Sowsub
- 75'P. David for T. Buchanansub
- 76'P. Davidgoalassist N. Saliba
- 80'D. Ndoye for R. Vargassub
- 83'J. Shaffelburg for R. Laryeasub
- 85'C. Fassnacht for J. Manzambisub
- 85'C. Itten for B. Embolosub
source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 24 Jun 2026 22:49:24 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Switzerland 2-1 Canada
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 1/3
The debrief
We sealed Honours even at 52%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Switzerland 2-1 Canada: the Switzerland win, an outcome we had at 29 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 1 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Switzerland and Canada share the points.
- A tight, low-scoring game: two goals or fewer in total.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Switzerland +24 and Canada -24.
On our player board, the squads moved Switzerland +140 (16 appearances) · Canada -129 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeDrafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionelo-davidson-features-v2 → 29/52/19 (home/draw/away).Favourite: a draw · 52%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Switzerland v Canada before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.