full time
Canada1–1Bosnia-Herzegovina
BMO Field, Toronto · 45,736 seats
Missed it. It stays up.
Canada to win
sealed Fri 12 Jun · 16:40 UTC · 18:40 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Fri, 12 Jun 2026 16:40:33 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v1
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1840-37 this year
1877 → 1840 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
30thheld on the latest list
27th → 30th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1674+101 this year
1573 → 1674 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
64thup 1 place on the latest list
71st → 64th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Canada by 166 points
How we got hereWe make Canada the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +246 edge into 63% / 22% / 15% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Canada
1.7
expected goals
Bosnia-Herzegovina
0.9
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–012 in 100
- 1–112 in 100
- 2–011 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Canada 42 in 100, Bosnia-Herzegovina 18 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Canada win at home.✗ wrong
- Canada win comfortably, by two goals or more.✗ wrong
- Canada keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Canada4-4-2
- 16Maxime CrépeauG~1532 provisional
- 2Alistair JohnstonD~1621 provisional
- 4Luc De FougerollesD~1511 provisional
- 13Derek CorneliusD~1602 provisional
- 22Richie LaryeaD~1599 provisional
- 17Tajon BuchananM1766
- 8Ismael KonéM~1599 provisional
- 7Stephen EustaquioM1687
- 11Liam MillarM~1640 provisional
- 10Jonathan DavidF1848
- 12Tani OluwaseyiF~1780 provisional
3 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Dayne St. ClairG~1560 provisional
- 18Owen GoodmanG~1552 provisional
- 23Niko SigurM~1590 provisional
- 3Alfie JonesD~1676 provisional
- 5Joel WatermanD~1601 provisional
- 15Moise BombitoD1631
- 19Alphonso DaviesD1976
- 20Ali AhmedM~1600 provisional
- 25Nathan-Dylan SalibaM~1608 provisional
- 6Mathieu ChoinièreM~1589 provisional
- 21Jonathan OsorioM~1540 provisional
- 14Jacob ShaffelburgF~1602 provisional
- 24Promise DavidF1665
- 26Jayden NelsonFunrated
- 9Cyle LarinF1743
Bosnia & Herzegovina4-4-2
- 1Nikola VasiljG~1489 provisional
- 7Amar DedićD1783
- 18Nikola KatićD1553
- 4Tarik MuharemovićD~1563 provisional
- 5Sead KolašinacD1771
- 20Esmir BajraktarevićM1720
- 13Ivan BašićM~1585 provisional
- 6Benjamin TahirovićM~1528 provisional
- 15Amar MemićM~1546 provisional
- 10Ermedin DemirovićF1770
- 25Jovo LukićF~1539 provisional
5 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Mladen JurkasG~1530 provisional
- 22Martin ZlomislićG~1538 provisional
- 24Arjan MalićDunrated
- 21Stjepan RadeljićD1558
- 3Dennis HadžikadunićD1558
- 2Nihad MujakićD~1514 provisional
- 16Amir HadžiahmetovićM~1581 provisional
- 14Ivan ŠunjićM~1567 provisional
- 8Armin GigovićM1543
- 17Dženis BurnićM~1552 provisional
- 19Kerim AlajbegovićF~1569 provisional
- 26Ermin MahmicM~1542 provisional
- 9Samed BaždarF~1526 provisional
- 11Edin DžekoF1497
- 23Haris TabakovićF1687
source: api-football.com · fetched Fri, 12 Jun 2026 18:30:26 GMT
Full time
Missed it.
Canada 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina
- Verdict
- wrong and wrong
- Claims right
- 0/3
The debrief
We sealed Canada to win at 63%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Canada 1-1 Bosnia-Herzegovina: the draw, an outcome we had at 22 in 100.
The call missed and the reasoning went with it. Nothing here gets softened: the claims that failed are named below, and the miss goes on the record at full weight. The claims went 0 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Canada win at home.
- Canada win comfortably, by two goals or more.
- Canada keep it tight — at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Canada -18 and Bosnia-Herzegovina +18.
On our player board, the squads moved Canada -23 (16 appearances) · Bosnia-Herzegovina +34 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +246 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 63/22/15 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Canada · 63%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Canada v Bosnia-Herzegovina before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.