full time
New Zealand1–5Belgium
BC Place, Vancouver · 54,500 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Belgium to win
sealed Thu 25 Jun · 19:49 UTC · 21:49 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 25 Jun 2026 19:49:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1688-122 this year
1810 → 1688 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
85thheld on the latest list
87th → 85th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
2035+109 this year
1926 → 2035 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
9thheld on the latest list
8th → 9th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Belgium by 347 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and Belgium took it.
1 prior meeting · New Zealand 0, drawn 0, Belgium 1 · goals 1-5
- 2026New Zealand 1-5 Belgium· FIFA World Cup· neutral
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Belgium the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -242 edge into 16% / 22% / 63% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
New Zealand
0.9
expected goals
Belgium
1.7
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 0–112 in 100
- 1–112 in 100
- 0–211 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 1–210 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: New Zealand 18 in 100, Belgium 42 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Belgium win on the road.✓ right
- Belgium win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- Belgium keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
New Zealand4-2-3-1
- 1Max CrocombeG~1574 provisional
- 2Tim PayneD~1526 provisional
- 16Finn SurmanD~1551 provisional
- 4Tyler BindonD~1556 provisional
- 13Liberato CacaceD~1574 provisional
- 8Marko StamenićM1544
- 6Joe BellM~1528 provisional
- 23Ryan ThomasM~1510 provisional
- 10Sarpreet SinghM~1520 provisional
- 11Elijah JustM~1562 provisional
- 9Chris WoodF1887
2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 22Michael WoudG~1533 provisional
- 12Alex PaulsenG~1526 provisional
- 15Nando PijnakerD~1553 provisional
- 5Michael BoxallD~1476 provisional
- 3Francis De VriesD~1551 provisional
- 26Tommy SmithD~1537 provisional
- 24Callan ElliotD~1555 provisional
- 14Alex RuferM~1543 provisional
- 20Callum McCowattM~1551 provisional
- 21Jesse RandallF~1536 provisional
- 25Lachlan BaylissM~1549 provisional
- 19Benjamin OldF~1535 provisional
- 7Logan RogersonFunrated
- 17Kosta BarbarousesF~1524 provisional
- 18Ben WaineF~1538 provisional
Belgium4-2-3-1
- 1Thibaut CourtoisG2080
- 21Timothy CastagneD1950
- 4Brandon MecheleD1925
- 3Arthur TheateD1781
- 5Maxim De CuyperD1929
- 20Hans VanakenM1969
- 8Youri TielemansM2246
- 10Leandro TrossardM2208
- 7Kevin De BruyneM2072
- 11Jérémy DokuM2193
- 17Charles De KetelaereF1968
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 12Senne LammensG~2069 provisional
- 13Mike PendersG~1804 provisional
- 18Joaquin SeysD1885
- 16Koni De WinterD~1865 provisional
- 15Thomas MeunierD1880
- 24Amadou OnanaM1994
- 19Diego MoreiraF1775
- 14Dodi LukebakioF~1929 provisional
- 23Nicolas RaskinM~1722 provisional
- 6Axel WitselM1702
- 22Alexis SaelemaekersF1827
- 26Matías Fernández-PardoF1838
- 9Romelu LukakuF1977
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 02:22:47 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 28'L. Trossardgoal
- 46'J. Randall for S. Singhsub
- 46'B. Old for R. Thomassub
- 50'L. Trossardgoalassist H. Vanaken
- 56'M. Fernandez-Pardo for J. Dokusub
- 64'M. Boxall for T. Paynesub
- 64'C. McCowatt for J. Bellsub
- 66'K. De Bruynegoal
- 72'A. Saelemaekers for L. Trossardsub
- 72'A. Onana for K. De Bruynesub
- 79'F. De Vries for L. Cacacesub
- 84'E. Justgoal
- 85'R. Lukaku for C. De Ketelaeresub
- 85'N. Raskin for Y. Tielemanssub
- 86'R. Lukakugoalassist N. Raskin
- 90+4'A. Saelemaekersgoalassist R. Lukaku
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 27 Jun 2026 07:34:34 GMT
Full time
Called it.
New Zealand 1-5 Belgium
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Belgium to win at 63%, about , before kickoff. Full time said New Zealand 1-5 Belgium: the Belgium win, an outcome we had at 63 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- Belgium keep it tight, at least one side is shut out.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved New Zealand -18 and Belgium +18.
On our player board, the squads moved New Zealand -155 (16 appearances) · Belgium +124 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -242 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 16/22/63 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Belgium · 63%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked New Zealand v Belgium before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.