Kai Havertz

Club football at Arsenal FC.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
26
sourced with the squad
position
Offence
Germany
club
Arsenal FC
football-data.org
club tier
2064
ClubElo strength
our board
#1
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1603′
25 appearances
npxG + xA per 90
0.70
99th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Goals for Germany, on the record and counted.

goals
3
assists
0

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad: Germany · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: Arsenal FCfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

2165 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

2208 full roster Elo (+42 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~2217 ±45 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the offence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Germany's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 2053
age curve at 26 (offences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior: -6
attacking output, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +118
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 2165
form: national-team results, 25 appearances1603 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: +42
full roster Elo · with results: 2208

Where the +118 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 0.70 npxG + xA per 90
his rank: 99th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the open StatsBomb archive, every shot scored by our own xG model
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(99.5th) = 46 × 2.57 = +118

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-29. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
Top of our board, full stop, the strongest of all 1424 rated players.
vs his seed
The folded nights have added +42 to the number he seeded with, he has outplayed his own prior.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€64m–€200m ≈ €126m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 2064the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×10.18
ageage 26, in the fee-peak window (24–27): ×1.00
attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×1.00
individual skillmeasured 99th percentile of peers: ×1.81
our estimate: ≈ €126m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €70m (2023-06). Our estimate today: ≈ €126m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: undervalued , we rate him 80% above his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

2023-06-28Chelsea → Arsenal€70m
2020-09-04Bayer Leverkusen → Chelsea€71m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Germany’s record

v ParaguaySealed
at Ecuador2–1Missed it
v Ivory Coast2–1Called it
v Curaçao7–1Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Germany. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.