Nathaniel Brown

1803 full roster Elo (+14 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1813 ±46 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the defence age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Germany's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1753

age curve at 22 (defences' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior

-7

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+44

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1790

form: national-team results, 29 appearances2404 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+14

full roster Elo · with results

1803

Where the +44 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

40.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

99th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(99.1th) = 46 × 2.37 × 0.4 (position weight) = +44

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-29. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill

€8m

club tier 1664the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays

×1.73

ageage 22, the resale premium a club pays for the years to come

×1.15

defender fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts

×0.58

individual skillmeasured 85th percentile of peers

×1.35

our estimate

≈ €12m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.