Toni Fruk

1652 full roster Elo (+2 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1655 ±64 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the midfield age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Croatia's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point

1623

age curve at 24 (midfields' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls

-7

transfer market value, a sourced market-consensus quality prior (the stronger reading for him here)his percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons

+35

quality rating · club, age + measured output

1651

form: national-team results, 5 appearances249 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI

+2

full roster Elo · with results

1652

Where the +35 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured

9.00 transfer market value (EUR millions), as a rank among peers

his rank

93th percentile of qualified peers

scored from

the CC0 Transfermarkt community mirror; a market-consensus quality prior, taken at a capped weight where it reads a player higher than our (fixed, partial) shot/event data can

the arithmetic

46 pts/σ × z(93.3th) = 46 × 1.50 × 0.5 (position weight) = +35

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2025-11-14. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.