Mario Pašalić

Club football at Atalanta BC.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

age
25
sourced with the squad
position
Midfield
Croatia
club
Atalanta BC
football-data.org
club tier
1764
ClubElo strength
our board
#1015
of 1424 rated players
folded so far
1123′
24 appearances
npxG + xA per 90
0.28
78th percentile of peers

Sourced

squad: Croatia · Midfieldfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club: Atalanta BCfootball-data.org · 2026-06-29

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1640 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1623 full roster Elo (−18 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

potential ~1623 ±45 a projection, not a measurement: room left on the midfield age curve

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Croatia's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point: 1623
age curve at 25 (midfields' curve)young-side discount halved, his measured production overrides the average-youngster prior: 0
attacking output, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons: +18
quality rating · club, age + measured output: 1640
form: national-team results, 24 appearances1123 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI: -18
full roster Elo · with results: 1623

Where the +18 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured: 0.28 npxG + xA per 90
his rank: 78th percentile of qualified peers
scored from: the open StatsBomb archive, every shot scored by our own xG model
the arithmetic: 46 pts/σ × z(78.0th) = 46 × 0.77 × 0.5 (position weight) = +18

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-27. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

standing
#1015 of 1424 rated players on our board.
vs his seed
The folded nights have cost him 18 points off his seed, kept on the record, like everything.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€11m–€41m ≈ €21m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose

reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill: €8m
club tier 1764the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays: ×2.41
ageage 25, in the fee-peak window (24–27): ×1.00
midfielder fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts: ×0.90
individual skillmeasured 78th percentile of peers: ×1.27
our estimate: ≈ €21m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

2025-02-05HNK Rijeka → Orlando City SCundisclosed
2023-07-01Borussia Dortmund → HNK Rijekaundisclosed

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Croatia’s record

v Ghana2–1Called it
at Panama0–1Called it
at England4–2Called it

The newsroom’s calls on Croatia. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.