full time
Netherlands5–1Sweden
NRG Stadium, Houston · 72,220 seats
Called it. As forecast.
Netherlands to win
sealed Thu 18 Jun · 20:15 UTC · 22:15 CEST · nothing deleted
Frequencies, not a market line.
locked Thu, 18 Jun 2026 20:15:31 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
2046+10 this year
2036 → 2046 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
8thdown 1 place on the latest list
7th → 8th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1795-14 this year
1809 → 1795 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
38thheld on the latest list
43rd → 38th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Netherlands by 251 points
Head to head
Netherlands have had the better of this fixture.
25 prior meetings · Netherlands 11, drawn 6, Sweden 8 · goals 47-48
- 2017Netherlands 2-0 Sweden· FIFA World Cup qualification
- 2016Sweden 1-1 Netherlands· FIFA World Cup qualification
- 2011Sweden 3-2 Netherlands· UEFA Euro qualification
- 2010Netherlands 4-1 Sweden· UEFA Euro qualification
- 2008Netherlands 3-1 Sweden· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Netherlands the stronger side, and seal the call at about 6 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +194 edge into 58% / 23% / 19% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
Netherlands
1.7
expected goals
Sweden
0.9
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–112 in 100
- 1–012 in 100
- 2–010 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 2–110 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Netherlands 39 in 100, Sweden 19 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Netherlands win at home.✓ right
- Netherlands win comfortably, by two goals or more.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✓ right
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
Netherlands4-3-3
- 1Bart VerbruggenG1953
- 22Denzel DumfriesD1993
- 4Virgil van DijkD2196
- 6Jan Paul van HeckeD2066
- 15Micky van de VenD1903
- 8Ryan GravenberchM2151
- 21Frenkie de JongM2096
- 14Tijjani ReijndersM2076
- 18Donyell MalenF2087
- 19Brian BrobbeyF1886
- 11Cody GakpoF2108
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 23Mark FlekkenG1880
- 13Robin RoefsG~1922 provisional
- 25Jorrel HatoD1879
- 5Nathan AkéD1965
- 2Lutsharel GeertruidaDunrated
- 12Mats WiefferM2023
- 16Guus TilM1951
- 7Justin KluivertF2023
- 3Marten de RoonM1898
- 20Teun KoopmeinersM1940
- 24Crysencio SummervilleF1886
- 10Memphis DepayF1885
- 17Noa LangF1813
- 9Wout WeghorstF1684
Sweden3-1-4-2
- 23Kristoffer NordfeldtG~1524 provisional
- 2Gustaf LagerbielkeD1870
- 4Isak HienD1825
- 3Victor LindelöfD1880
- 16Jesper KarlströmM~1688 provisional
- 21Alexander BernhardssonM~1597 provisional
- 10Benjamin NygrenM~1587 provisional
- 18Yasin AyariM1941
- 5Gabriel GudmundssonM1856
- 17Viktor GyökeresF2173
- 9Alexander IsakF2092
7 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Jacob Widell ZetterströmG~1597 provisional
- 12Viktor JohanssonG~1565 provisional
- 15Carl StarfeltD1765
- 14Hjalmar EkdalD1659
- 20Eric SmithD~1540 provisional
- 22Besfort ZeneliM~1804 provisional
- 8Daniel SvenssonD1850
- 24Elliot StroudM~1595 provisional
- 6Herman JohanssonM~1603 provisional
- 13Ken SemaM~1600 provisional
- 7Lucas BergvallM1812
- 19Mattias SvanbergM~1644 provisional
- 26Taha Abdi AliM~1573 provisional
- 11Anthony ElangaF1901
- 25Gustaf NilssonF1784
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 16:21:19 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 5'B. Brobbeygoalassist C. Gakpo
- 17'B. Brobbeygoalassist D. Dumfries
- 46'C. Summerville for D. Malensub
- 47'C. Gakpogoalassist D. Dumfries
- 54'C. Gakpogoalassist C. Summerville
- 55'A. Elanga for A. Bernhardssonsub
- 56'B. Zeneli for J. Karlstromsub
- 56'L. Bergvall for B. Nygrensub
- 59'A. Elangagoalassist A. Isak
- 59'T. Koopmeiners for F. de Jongsub
- 59'G. Til for T. Reijnderssub
- 72'M. Depay for B. Brobbeysub
- 79'T. Ali for Y. Ayarisub
- 89'C. Summervillegoalassist M. Depay
- 90'N. Lang for C. Gakposub
- 90+3'E. Stroud for G. Gudmundssonsub
source: api-football.com · fetched Sat, 20 Jun 2026 19:21:12 GMT
Full time
Called it.
Netherlands 5-1 Sweden
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 3/3
The debrief
We sealed Netherlands to win at 58%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Netherlands 5-1 Sweden: the Netherlands win, an outcome we had at 58 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 3 of 3.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved Netherlands +28 and Sweden -28.
On our player board, the squads moved Netherlands +155 (16 appearances) · Sweden -139 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +194 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 58/23/19 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Netherlands · 58%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked Netherlands v Sweden before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.