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World Cup 2026by ProofXIReceipts
Wed 1 Jul · 01:00 UTC · 03:00 CEST

full time

Mexico2–0Ecuador

2010+39rating1963-2514thup 1fifa23rd

Called it. As forecast.

Mexico to win

home 46% ✓draw 25%away 28%

sealed Mon 29 Jun · 19:54 UTC · 21:54 CEST · nothing deleted

Called

Frequencies, not a market line.

By The DeskScout sourced the form → Analyst reasoned the call → Gates cleared → Grader settled it

locked Mon, 29 Jun 2026 19:54:29 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2

share the cardstorysquarefeedwide cardoutlook slide

The read

No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.

The ratings

The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.

Mexico

ProofXI rating

2010+39 this year

1971 → 2010 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

14thup 1 place on the latest list

15th → 14th · 6 lists

Ecuador

ProofXI rating

1963-25 this year

1988 → 1963 · 13 readings

FIFA world rank

23rdheld on the latest list

23rd → 23rd · 6 lists

the gap on our board today: Mexico by 47 points

Head to head

Mexico have had the better of this fixture.

27 prior meetings · Mexico 15, drawn 8, Ecuador 4 · goals 45-27

  1. 2026Mexico 2-0 Ecuador· FIFA World Cup
  2. 2025Mexico 1-1 Ecuador· Friendly
  3. 2024Mexico 0-0 Ecuador· Copa América· neutral
  4. 2022Mexico 0-0 Ecuador· Friendly· neutral
  5. 2021Mexico 2-3 Ecuador· Friendly· neutral

source · international results feed

How we got hereWe make Mexico the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose

The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.

Mexico rating edge+20
Home advantage+65
Net edge+85

Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that +85 edge into 46% / 25% / 28% for home, draw, away.

Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.

How it could go

The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.

Mexico

1.5

expected goals

Ecuador

1.1

expected goals

The scorelines it sees most

  • 1–113 in 100
  • 1–010 in 100
  • 2–19 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
  • 0–08 in 100

three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: Mexico 32 in 100, Ecuador 23 in 100

glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.

The scorecard

  • Mexico win at home.✓ right
  • No blowout: Mexico win by a single goal at most, if at all.✗ wrong
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong

The team sheets

The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.

Mexico4-3-3

  1. 1Raúl RangelG~1718 provisional
  2. 2Jorge SánchezD1758
  3. 3César MontesD~1634 provisional
  4. 5Johan VásquezD~1779 provisional
  5. 23Jesús GallardoD~1747 provisional
  6. 19Gilberto MoraM~1685 provisional
  7. 6Erik LiraM~1764 provisional
  8. 7Luis RomoM~1799 provisional
  9. 25Roberto AlvaradoF~1845 provisional
  10. 9Raúl JiménezF2002
  11. 16Julián QuiñonesF~1868 provisional

2 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

Ecuador4-4-2

  1. 1Hernán GalíndezG~1543 provisional
  2. 21Alan FrancoD~1690 provisional
  3. 4Joel OrdóñezD1817
  4. 6Willian PachoD2023
  5. 3Piero HincapiéD2074
  6. 9John YeboahM~1632 provisional
  7. 23Moisés CaicedoM2090
  8. 15Pedro ViteM~1675 provisional
  9. 20Nilson AnguloM1778
  10. 19Gonzalo PlataF~1857 provisional
  11. 13Enner ValenciaF1553

6 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.

The bench

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 01 Jul 2026 00:21:15 GMT

The timeline

The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.

  1. 22'J. Quinonesgoalassist R. Alvarado
  2. 31'R. Jimenezgoalassist J. Quinones
  3. 46'Y. Medina for A. Francosub
  4. 46'A. Preciado for J. Ordonezsub
  5. 58'B. Gutierrez for G. Morasub
  6. 59'K. Rodriguez for E. Valenciasub
  7. 73'O. Vargas for L. Romosub
  8. 74'S. Gimenez for R. Jimenezsub
  9. 79'J. Caicedo for J. Yeboahsub
  10. 79'K. Paez for N. Angulosub
  11. 80'O. Pineda for J. Quinonessub
  12. 80'I. Reyes for R. Alvaradosub

source: api-football.com · fetched Wed, 01 Jul 2026 05:03:24 GMT

Full time

Called it.

Mexico 2-0 Ecuador

Verdict
right but lucky
Claims right
1/3

The debrief

We sealed Mexico to win at 46%, about , before kickoff. Full time said Mexico 2-0 Ecuador: the Mexico win, an outcome we had at 46 in 100.

The call landed, but the claims underneath it mostly did not. We count that as lucky, not vindicated, the result flatters the reasoning, and the scorecard above keeps the receipts. The claims went 1 of 3.

What we got wrong, by name

  • No blowout: Mexico win by a single goal at most, if at all.
  • An open game in which both teams find the net.

One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.

How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose

On the live national Elo, this result moved Mexico +24 and Ecuador -24.

On our player board, the squads moved Mexico +318 (16 appearances) · Ecuador -311 (16 appearances).

Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.

THE DESK AT WORK

  1. ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
  2. AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge +85 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
  3. ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 46/25/28 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Mexico · 46%
  4. ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
  5. GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
  6. The DeskLocked the callLocked Mexico v Ecuador before kickoff.

A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.

Behind the glass

The pipeline

  1. Researchinputs sourced
  2. Forecastlocked before kickoff
  3. Drafthouse template
  4. Gatesall checks passed
  5. Publishshadow
  6. Gradescored vs the result

The checks

  • No betting markets

    The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.

  • Sourced facts only

    Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.

  • No fabricated names

    A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.

  • Falsifiable claims

    Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.