full time
South Africa0–1Canada
Called it. As forecast.
Canada to win
sealed Fri 26 Jun · 19:39 UTC · 21:39 CEST · nothing deleted
locked Fri, 26 Jun 2026 19:39:35 GMT · model elo-davidson-features-v2
The read
No prose on this one. The desk let the number do the talking. The call stands, and it goes on the record either way.
The ratings
The two strength reads behind this fixture: our results-based rating, the same forward-only engine the sealed call uses, read monthly, and FIFA's official table. Up is stronger on both lines; green is climbing, red is sliding. Context beside the call; the sealed number does not move.
ProofXI rating
1652-24 this year
1676 → 1652 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
60thheld on the latest list
61st → 60th · 6 lists
ProofXI rating
1892+11 this year
1881 → 1892 · 13 readings
FIFA world rank
30thheld on the latest list
27th → 30th · 6 lists
the gap on our board today: Canada by 240 points
Head to head
They have met once before, and South Africa took it.
1 prior meeting · South Africa 1, drawn 0, Canada 0 · goals 2-0
- 2007South Africa 2-0 Canada· Friendly
source · international results feed
How we got hereWe make Canada the stronger side, and seal the call at about 5 in 10. Open for the working.openclose
The arithmetic behind the call: a rating edge, in points, mapped to a probability.
Davidson Elo→1X2 turns that -141 edge into 23% / 24% / 52% for home, draw, away.
Ratings only. Recent form and rest are not modelled for national sides.
How it could go
The same sealed edge, played as goals instead of straight to a result: our goals model runs the match score by score. The call above stands, this is its texture.
South Africa
1.0
expected goals
Canada
1.6
expected goals
The scorelines it sees most
- 1–113 in 100
- 0–111 in 100
- 1–29 in 100
the fuller goal pictureopenclose
- 0–29 in 100
three or more goals: 48 in 100 · clean sheet: South Africa 21 in 100, Canada 35 in 100
glassbox-goals-v1, our own goals model, run from the same ratings as the call. Frequencies, never a market.
The scorecard
- Canada win on the road.✓ right
- No blowout: Canada win by a single goal at most, if at all.✓ right
- An open game in which both teams find the net.✗ wrong
The team sheets
The confirmed elevens, as named. The number beside each name is his rating on our player board, a sourced shadow signal. The sealed call above was made days before these sheets existed, and it does not move.
South Africa4-2-3-1
- 1Ronwen WilliamsG1634
- 20Khuliso MudauD1635
- 21Ime OkonD1492
- 14Mbekezeli MbokaziD1572
- 6Aubrey ModibaD1641
- 4Teboho MokoenaM1611
- 13Sphephelo SitholeM1476
- 12Thapelo MasekoM1525
- 10Relebohile MofokengM1604
- 7Oswin AppollisM1617
- 17Evidence MakgopaF1608
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 16Sipho ChaineG1636
- 22Ricardo GossG1534
- 2Tholo Thabang MatuludiD1553
- 3Khulumani NdamaneD1563
- 18Samukelo KabiniD1524
- 19Nkosinathi SibisiD1601
- 24Olwethu MakhanyaD1486
- 26Bradley CrossD1578
- 5Thalente MbathaM1606
- 23Jayden AdamsM1597
- 8Tshepang MoremiF1614
- 25Kamogelo SebelebeleM1585
- 9Lyle FosterF1657
- 15Iqraam RaynersF1594
Canada4-4-2
- 16Maxime CrépeauG1592
- 2Alistair JohnstonD1604
- 15Moise BombitoD1682
- 13Derek CorneliusD1574
- 22Richie LaryeaD1595
- 17Tajon BuchananM1822
- 25Nathan-Dylan SalibaM1592
- 7Stephen EustaquioM1642
- 11Liam MillarM1624
- 10Jonathan DavidF1791
- 12Tani OluwaseyiF1793
11 of 11 starters carry folded match data on our board; the rest sit at the seed prior. We rate what we've seen.
The bench
- 1Dayne St. ClairG1583
- 18Owen GoodmanG~1552 provisional
- 3Alfie JonesD1676
- 4Luc De FougerollesD1531
- 5Joel WatermanD1620
- 19Alphonso DaviesD1938
- 23Niko SigurM1617
- 6Mathieu ChoinièreM1602
- 14Jacob ShaffelburgF1594
- 20Ali AhmedM1623
- 21Jonathan OsorioM1524
- 9Cyle LarinF1739
- 24Promise DavidF1650
- 26Jayden NelsonFunrated
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 18:21:19 GMT
The timeline
The goals, assists and substitutions as they came, read straight off the match feed, by the clock. Sourced facts; the call above was sealed days before any of them.
- 46'T. Mbatha for R. Mofokengsub
- 59'N. Sigur for N. Salibasub
- 59'L. De Fougerolles for M. Bombitosub
- 70'P. David for T. Oluwaseyisub
- 70'J. Shaffelburg for L. Millarsub
- 75'A. Davies for T. Buchanansub
- 86'I. Rayners for E. Makgopasub
- 86'T. Moremi for T. Masekosub
- 90+2'S. Eustaquiogoal
source: api-football.com · fetched Sun, 28 Jun 2026 23:04:29 GMT
Full time
Called it.
South Africa 0-1 Canada
- Verdict
- right for right reasons
- Claims right
- 2/3
The debrief
We sealed Canada to win at 52%, about 5 in 10, before kickoff. Full time said South Africa 0-1 Canada: the Canada win, an outcome we had at 52 in 100.
The call landed and the reasoning underneath it held. That is the best a forecast gets: right, and right for the reasons we wrote down before kickoff. The claims went 2 of 3.
What we got wrong, by name
- An open game in which both teams find the net.
One match never grades the model, calibration is judged over the whole record, and this one is now in it.
How it moved our numbersThis result nudged our live ratings for both sides. Open for the signed moves.openclose
On the live national Elo, this result moved South Africa -18 and Canada +18.
On our player board, the squads moved South Africa -73 (14 appearances) · Canada +67 (16 appearances).
Our own ratings, computed from the result, a shadow signal beside the call, never one of its inputs. The sealed forecast above does not move.
THE DESK AT WORK
- ScoutSourced the inputsPulled both sides' ratings.
- AnalystWeighed the edgeNet edge -141 after home advantage; drafted 3 checkable claims.
- ModelMapped it to a distributionDavidson Elo→1X2 → 23/24/52 (home/draw/away).Favourite: Canada · 52%
- ScribeFiled the readPrepared the read behind the call.
- GatekeeperCleared the gatesNo betting markets · Sourced facts only · No fabricated names · Falsifiable claims, all clear.
- The DeskLocked the callLocked South Africa v Canada before kickoff.
A replay of how this call was built. Real steps, paced to read. The model owns the favourite; the desk sources and explains it.
Behind the glass
The pipeline
- Researchinputs sourced
- Forecastlocked before kickoff
- Drafthouse template
- Gatesall checks passed
- Publishshadow
- Gradescored vs the result
The checks
- No betting markets
The call is built from football strength alone, never a bookmaker's price, as an input or anywhere on the page.
- Sourced facts only
Every player, squad or result fact must trace to a dated source under seven days old, or it is blocked before publish.
- No fabricated names
A registry blocks invented or mistaken player and team names from ever reaching the page.
- Falsifiable claims
Each claim on the scorecard must be checkable against the final result, no vague hedging that can't be graded.