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Cyle Larin

Canada · the desk

Offence, Canada

Club football at Southampton FC.

Sourced facts, dated and on the record. Squad membership, and his club when a source names one. Nothing invented; we don’t make players up.

At a glance

  • age

    30

    sourced with the squad

  • position

    Offence

    Canada

  • club

    Southampton FC

    football-data.org

  • club tier

    1636

    ClubElo strength

  • our board

    #718

    of 1424 rated players

  • folded so far

    1216′

    28 appearances

  • npxG + xA per 90

    0.36

    87th percentile of peers

On the pitch

Goals for Canada, on the record and counted.

  • goals

    1

  • assists

    0

goals and assists from our captured match events · caps and minutes from the appearance record

Sourced

squad
Canada · Offencefootball-data.org · 2026-06-29
club
Southampton FCfootball-data.org · 2026-06-25

Sourced context, nothing more. It never touches a call.

Our rating · the working

the board →

1732 ±45

his quality rating: club, age and measured output. The board orders by this plus his World Cup form, less a discount for how much we can measure him.

How the number is builtopenclose

1739 full roster Elo (+7 from national-team results)

the ± is how settled the number is, more minutes, tighter band

Tier 2, lineups + results, how rich the evidence is, not just how much

at or near his peak, no projected upside from age

Where he starts (his team’s strength, we refuse to invent what we haven’t measured) plus two fixed nudges make the quality rating above; the last line is what national-team results have added since, taking it to his full roster Elo.

starts at Canada's strengththe fair club-over-national anchor, every player's starting point
1686
age curve at 30 (offences' curve)measured from the open archive by our own study (defenders: the published literature's shape), never fitted to our calls
-7
attacking output, our xG modelhis percentile among minutes-qualified peers, from club seasons
+52
quality rating · club, age + measured output
1732
form: national-team results, 28 appearances1216 minutes, weighted by margin, surprise and his match stats, but shared across the XI
+7
full roster Elo · with results
1739

Where the +52 skill term comes from

Not a reputation, a measurement. We score every shot in the data ourselves and rank him among minutes-qualified peers; a fixed arithmetic turns that rank into points.

measured
0.36 npxG + xA per 90
his rank
87th percentile of qualified peers
scored from
the open StatsBomb archive, every shot scored by our own xG model
the arithmetic
46 pts/σ × z(87.2th) = 46 × 1.14 = +52

A forward-only shadow signal, as of 2026-06-24. The skill term comes from our own xG models over the open archive; the rest is earned, recorded per appearance, auditable, never back-filled. It never moves a live call.

The notebook

The lines a beat writer keeps, except every one of ours is read off the ledger above, auditable to the night. Nothing invented.

  • standing

    #718 of 1424 rated players on our board.

What he’d cost · our estimate

€5.3m–€21m ≈ €10m

Not a figure from any valuation site; we don’t republish those. Our own model: the level he plays at, what we’ve measured of him, his age and his role. A band, not a point: we can’t see contract length or release clauses, the two biggest real drivers, so we say so.

The workingopenclose
reference feea mid-tier-club, peak-age forward of average measured skill
€8m
club tier 1636the level he plays at, the strongest signal of what a club pays
×1.57
ageage 30, past the fee-peak, value falls ~18% a year
×0.55
attacker fee factorstrikers set the market's top; midfield runs close; defence and goal at the record books' discounts
×1.00
individual skillmeasured 87th percentile of peers
×1.56
our estimate
≈ €10m

fee-model v3 priors (panel-anchored, 2026-06), calibrated against our reported fees. The band is roughly two-in-three likely; contract length and release clauses are data we don’t hold. Context only, it never touches a call.

The fee record · sourced

The market’s last public word: €7.5m (2023-08). Our estimate today: ≈ €10m. The gap is evidence, many of them, together, recalibrate our model; no single one rewrites him.

our read: undervalued , we rate him 40% above his last market price (a gem signal, context only)

  • 2026-02-01Mallorca → Southamptonloan
  • 2026-01-31Feyenoord → Mallorcaloan
  • 2025-09-02Mallorca → Feyenoordloan
  • 2023-08-04Valladolid → Mallorca€7.5m

Reported moves, dated and attributed (api-football.com), news facts, not a valuation site’s estimates. It never touches a call.

In our coverage · Canada’s record

  • at South Africa0–1Called it
  • at Switzerland2–1Missed it
  • v Qatar6–0Called it
  • v Bosnia & Herzegovina1–1Missed it

The newsroom’s calls on Canada. Team-level, never dressed up as a player stat.

Squad · sourced